826
FXUS65 KBOI 291531
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
931 AM MDT Wed May 29 2024

.DISCUSSION...No updates to the forecast this morning. The
primary forecast concern are breezy conditions in the Snake
Plain thanks to decent gradient forcing. Strongest winds will be
between Mountain Home and the Magic Valley, where sustained
winds of 20-30 mph will accompany gusts of 30-45 mph. The rest
of the Snake Plain including the Treasure Valley will see gusts
up to 20-30 mph. Isolated showers will develop in the northern
half of Valley County today. There`s a 10-15% chance of stray
lightning within these showers. Temps should be comfortable over
the next few days, warming from 10 degrees below normal
today/Thursday to near normal on Friday. Skies clearing until
the next weak wave on Saturday, which will bring the next chance
of precipitation/thunder to the far northern portions of our
area.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR and generally dry today, except a few isolated
showers near KTWF/KJER which are forecast to dissipate by
Wed/18z. Isolated showers north and east of KMYL continue until
Thu/06z, with a 10-15% chance of lightning in the same area.
Surface winds: NW 10-20 kt with gusts to around 30 kt. 10k ft
MSL winds: W-NW 15-30 kt.

KBOI...VFR under scattered mid level clouds. Winds remain out
of the NW around 12-15 kt with infrequent gusts to around 25 kt.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Today through Friday night...The upper level
trough which kicked off numerous showers and thunderstorms
yesterday will pass through the area today. Temperatures will be
much cooler, with lower valley highs around 70 degrees, about a
20 degree drop from yesterday. Cooler and drier air will result
in stable conditions today, and aside from a few showers this
morning in eastern areas, most areas will remain dry. Winds will
be breezy today as the trough pushes through with gusts 20-30
mph, expect 30-45 mph from Mountain Home east into the Magic
Valley. An shortwave trough will move by to our north tonight,
resulting in a 20-40% chance of showers in the mountains east of
McCall. Thursday will be similar to today as dry northwest flow
develops behind the departing trough, except no chance of
showers and winds will subside. The flow will turn westerly as
a weak upper level ridge moves overhead on Friday. This will
bring about 10 degrees of warming with continued dry conditions.

LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...Models remain in good
agreement with regard to large scale features, including the passage
of two upper troughs - the first over the weekend, and the second
early next week. The first trough appears to be the weaker of the
two, with just a 15-30 percent chance of showers across far northern
Baker County into the West Central Mountains of Idaho. A weak cold
front will likely accompany the trough for breezy conditions.
Weekend temperatures average slightly above normal. The second
trough taps into more Pacific moisture for a better chance (30-60
percent) of showers on Monday. A cold front also accompanies the
trough for breezy to windy conditions. Moisture could linger in the
north for a 15-30 percent chance of showers on Tuesday, along with
near-normal temperatures. Models, including ensembles, diverge
somewhat by midweek, although most members agree in depicting an
upper ridge developing for dry conditions and a warming trend with
temperatures returning to above normal by Wednesday.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION.....JM
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM....BW