Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
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025 FXUS65 KBOU 070554 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1154 PM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures will be a warmer on Friday as well as scattered late day showers and thunderstorms. - Minor snowmelt impacts from rising streams, mainly in Grand County - Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms this weekend into early next week, along with cooler temperatures. A couple storms could be strong to severe. - Gradual trend towards warmer/drier weather towards the middle of next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 814 PM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Isolated showers are possible for the next hour or two along the Palmer Divide. Otherwise, the forecast package remains on track. && .SHORT TERM /Through Friday/... Issued at 253 PM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024 There are a few Cumulus clouds over the mountains and foothills at this time. The wind field remains pretty weak across the CWA. Temperatures have warmed into the lower and mid 80s F over the plains, with 50s F over the high mountains and 60s & 70s F over the high parks and foothills. Models keep showing the flat upper ridging over the CWA tonight and Friday with 30 to 50 knot west-southwesterly jet level flow. The QG fields show benign synoptic scale energy over our forest area tonight and Friday. Looking at the CAPE fields, there is some progged early this evening over the southwest and south central CWA. On Friday, there is fairly decent CAPE over most of the CWA with values in the 300-900 J/Kg range. Moisture is progged to increase on Friday with precipitable water values to be in the 0.60 to 1.30 inch range by Friday afternoon. So scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected over most areas Friday afternoon. Temperatures look to be 1-4 C warmer for highs than this afternoon`s readings. && .LONG TERM /Friday night through Thursday/... Issued at 222 PM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Cooler and stormy weather looks likely this weekend as a plume of well above normal moisture enters the region. Saturday should see the best chances for organized convection, with guidance in largely good agreement that we`ll see temperatures warm into the upper 70s/low 80s as dew points climb into the upper 40s to low 50s. A shortwave is also expected to track across the region, with a belt of enhanced mid-level flow developing by mid/late afternoon. This should be the focus for at least scattered showers and thunderstorms, though there are hints at capping holding on through most of the day. Storms that do develop could be strong to severe, with primarily a hail threat. Heavy rain will also be possible but impacts here are limited given storm motions near 15-20kt. Moisture will linger across the area on Sunday and Monday, with greater uncertainty in the forecast. There should be enough instability left, along with some weak/subtle forcing for scattered convection... especially closer to the foothills where the synoptic scale lift would be aided by weak surface convergence. Generally precipitation chances will decrease through Tuesday as we continue to lose instability/moisture. A return to warmer and drier weather looks likely by mid/late next week as ridging begins to build back across the region. Too early to get into many details, but a return to the upper 80s/low 90s looks likely by Wednesday. Ensemble guidance favors this pattern continuing into next weekend, with just enough moisture for scattered showers and storms across the high country each afternoon. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday/... Issued at 1139 PM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Drainage flow overnight at 12-18 kts at APA/DEN. Flow is still more SE at DEN (near midnight), but will transition more SSW in the next hour or two. Winds transition to NW flow by early Friday afternoon at 10-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts. Biggest concern for impacts will be the shower/thunderstorm potential in the afternoon, mainly after 21Z. Storm coverage will be fairly scattered and there isn`t a strong consensus on where they will be, so kept VCTS in at DEN and BJC. TEMPO for -TSRA given closer proximity to the Palmer Divide where the higher chances are. Strong gusty outflow winds will be the main hazard with any passing or nearby storms with gusts 25-35 kts. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 222 PM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Elevated flows continue across most of the higher elevation rivers and streams, particularly across the upper Colorado River basin. Continued snowmelt and additional rainfall this weekend could lead to additional increases in river flows. Remain cognizant of the dangers of these cold flows, and be aware of any Flood Advisories. In the forecast period, the main concern is a limited threat of burn area flash flooding by Saturday. Moisture increases substantially as PWATs remain close to 150-200% of normal across the high country from Saturday into Monday. Better instability should be in place on Saturday, though stronger mid-level flow will keep storm motions quick. The heavy rain potential Sunday and Monday will be influenced by how much instability remains. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...AD SHORT TERM.....RJK LONG TERM......Hiris AVIATION...Mensch HYDROLOGY......Hiris