Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
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279 FXUS65 KBOU 181643 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1043 AM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler Today and Wednesday with a chance of showers and a few storms. - Scattered thunderstorms Thursday into Friday. - Hot and drier through the weekend on into next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1013 AM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024 The passing cold front was successful in bringing cooler temperatures to the forecast area this morning. Temperatures are just reaching the low 60s across the plains at this time. With this slow to warm start, high temps were slightly lowered for the morning update. Aside from increasing winds at the CO/WY border this morning behind the cold front, and a slight adjustment to wind directions to account for the anticyclone that has setup, the current forecast looks to be on track for today. Enjoy the cooler temperatures while they are here! && .SHORT TERM /Through tonight/... Issued at 306 AM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024 An upper level trough will move across the nrn Rockies today with SW flow aloft in place. At the sfc, a cold front was moving across the plains early this morning. As a result, highs today will be much cooler than yesterday with readings mainly in the 70`s over nern CO. As for precip chances, there is minimal MLCAPE across the plains as better low level moisture will be to the southeast and south of the area. However, some moisture will move into the higher terrain where MLCAPE will be around 500 j/kg. Thus will keep in a slight chc of storms mainly in the mtns and across South Park. For tonight, the low level flow will increase from the east across the plains. This will allow for some increase in deeper low level moisture. Meanwhile, it appears nrn CO will be on the south side of a stronger upper level jet. Thus this could help produce some shower activity overnight across parts of the plains with an isold tstm or two. At this time still not clear where the best threat of showers will be so have kept pops in the chc category overnight. && .LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/... Issued at 326 AM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Models keep the CWA in southwesterly flow aloft Wednesday trough Thursday night with upper troughing over the western U.S. and strong upper ridging over the southeastern United States. The QG Omega fields mostly have weak upward vertical velocity through the four periods. In the low levels, pressure and wind fields have southeasterly surface winds on Wednesday with a Denver Cyclone likely to develop. After that, normal diurnal wind patterns are a good bet into Friday morning. Looking at moisture, precipitable water values increase a bit through the day Wednesday and by late afternoon most of the plains have 0.90 to 1.15 inches in place. By Thursday afternoon, values are up a bit more into the 1.00 to 1.30 inches range. Some CAPE is progged Wednesday but it is mainly limited to the western half of the CWA, with the highest values in the mountains and foothills. CAPE is more widespread and values are more significant for late day Thursday. Will mainly go with "scattered" pops or less late day Wednesday and Wednesday night. Pops will be a tad higher for late day Thursday with increased heating and somewhat better moisture. For temperatures, Wednesday`s highs are below seasonal normals for another day, then Thursday`s readings warm up some 5-10 C from Wednesday`s. For the later days, Friday through Monday, models finally show the weak upper trough to push eastward across the CWA on Friday into Saturday, then upper ridging builds in from the southeast and south of Colorado into next week. Late day convection will be "scattered" in the mountains and foothills, with less chances out on the plains. High temperatures will be around 90 F on the plains Friday, with above 90 F for the weekend and early next week. Monday looks like the hottest day with highs in the 95 to 100 F range over the plains. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday/... Issued at 446 AM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Have a well developed Longmont Anti-Cyclone this morning which is enhancing low level easterly winds at DIA. Expect winds will gradually decrease by 13z but stay easterly. Winds will stay easterly thru the aftn and gradually increase by 19z. Hi res data wants to develop some high based showers after 21z thru the evening hours, however,threat of tstms looks low at this time. Ceilings with the showers could drop to 9000 ft or so. Winds this evening and overnight will remain mainly easterly. May see some stratus develop late tonight with MVFR ceilings after 10z. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Bonner SHORT TERM...RPK LONG TERM....RJK AVIATION...RPK