549
FXUS64 KBRO 191734 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1234 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

The short term period will continue to be dominated by a
developing tropical disturbance over the Southern Gulf. The NHC
continues to forecast this system making landfall as a Tropical
Storm along the Mexican coast. A broad wind field extending to the
north of the circulation will bring the threat of Tropical Storm-
Force winds to the coastal counties of Deep South Texas. A
Tropical Storm Warning is in place for all of Cameron, Willacy,
and Kenedy counties.

In addition to the wind, showers and thunderstorms are expected
to continue across the CWA through the period. The WPC has a
moderate risk of excessive rainfall today and a slight risk
Thursday. Heavy rains could pose a threat of flash flooding
through the period.

Additionally this system will likely enhance the low-level shear
profile this afternoon, presenting a threat for some brief
tornadoes. The SPC has a Marginal Risk today for most of Deep
South Texas

Stronger winds and elevated seas are expected to continue
producing hazardous conditions along the area beaches. High Surf,
Rip Currents, and some Moderate Coastal Flooding are anticipated
with this system.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

The tropical system will continue to impact the region through
the start of the long term period, with rain chances potentially
lingering into the weekend and early next week. An upper level
high pressure system centered over Texas and the Southern Plains
will continue to support easterly to southeasterly winds over Deep
South Texas, potentially funneling additional tropical moisture
into the region through the period.

Beach conditions will likely improve over the weekend as seas
begin to diminish in the wake of this system.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Through 18z Thursday....

Aviation IDSS Key Messages:

* Waves of showers and thunderstorms to persist over the next 24
  hours

* Mainly MVFR-IFR conditions to continue; Instances of LIFR possible
  in the heaviest rain bands

* Winds will remain gusty at times out of the east-northeast

MVFR conditions with intervals of rain were taking place at the
terminals this afternoon under a BKN-OVC deck of cumulonimbus and
cumulus clouds with bases ranging between 1,000-3,000 feet AGL.
Visibilities were unrestricted at KBRO/KHRL, while -RA and BR had
visibilities reduced to 3 statute miles.

MVFR-IFR cigs/vsbys are expected to persist through the 18z TAF
cycle as waves of showers and thunderstorms associated with Tropical
Storm Alberto continue. There could be instances of LIFR conditions
in some of the heaviest of rain bands.

Winds are expected to continue out of the east-northeast between 15-
25 kts with gusts between 35-40 kts through the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 351 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

A tropical disturbance in the Southern Gulf of Mexico is forecast
to move slowly westward and strengthen to a Tropical Storm before
making landfall in Mexico. A large wind field extending to the
north of this system will likely support high seas as well as the
potential for Tropical Storm Force winds. Winds and seas are
expected to improve over the weekend, with light to moderate winds
and moderate seas continuing through the remainder of the period.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in place for the Laguna Madre
and Coastal Gulf waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             81  89  80  91 / 100 100  80  90
HARLINGEN               78  89  76  91 / 100 100  80  90
MCALLEN                 80  89  78  91 / 100 100  80  90
RIO GRANDE CITY         78  87  77  89 / 100 100  80  90
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      83  87  83  87 / 100 100  80  90
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     80  89  79  90 / 100 100  80  90

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Tropical Storm Warning for TXZ251-254-255-351-354-355-451-454-
     455.

     Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for TXZ248>255-351-
     353>355-451-454-455.

     Coastal Flood Warning until 1 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ351-354-355-
     451-454-455.

     High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for TXZ451-454-455.

     High Surf Warning until 7 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60-BE
LONG TERM....60-BE
AVIATION...23-Evbuoma