607
FXUS64 KBRO 201730 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1230 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Strong mid-level ridging will remain anchored over Texas and
northern Mexico through the period. Near to slightly above normal
high temperatures and with a persistent southeast fetch of Gulf
moisture dew points are expected to remain elevated through
Saturday. The combination of heat and elevated humidity will support
to "feel like" temperatures well over 100 degrees this afternoon and
Saturday afternoon. WPCs experimental heat risk shows a moderate
risk for all areas of Deep South Texas, except the immediate
coastline for this afternoon. Tonight will be warmer than normal
with lows in the the mid to upper 70 and the lower 80s.

Differential heating and weak sea-breeze will be the forcing and
lifting mechanism to fire off the isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms for later this morning into the afternoon. Another
around of isolated convection is expected across the area on
Saturday.

The risk current risk will remain low through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Elongated 500 mb high pressure, initially centered over south
Texas, will become increasingly stretched as it shifts into the
Eastern Seaboard. This will allow mid-level low pressure to become
more dominant over the Lone Star State. Overall, enough tropical
moisture will exist within the BRO CWFA, and combine with daytime
heating, to produce isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms
across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley through the
period. With precipitable water values ranging between 1.5 and 2
inches, heavy rain is not anticipated to be an issue.

Temperature-wise, no extreme values are expected, with daytime
highs and overnight lows in the near to slightly above normal
range. Thus, neither a HEAT ADVISORY nor a SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT for heat indices is likely to be needed.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Mostly VFR conditions are expected to persist through the period.
However, some MVFR conditions are possible as the sea breeze moves
through the area during the afternoon hours. However, those
conditions seem to be present for only a short amount of time.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible, but confidence is
not high enough to include in the TAF package. Southeasterly to
easterly winds are expected through the period as well, and should
remain mostly light for the period. Maybe a bit gustier for MFE,
but that should also be for a very short time period as well.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Favorable conditions will prevail along the Lower Texas Coast
through Saturday. Broad high pressure across the Gulf will
continue to maintain light east to southeast winds and low seas.
Isolated showers or thunderstorms are possible.

(Saturday Night through Thursday)
Light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas will generally
prevail through a majority of the period along the Lower Texas
Coast courtesy of high pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico.
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution and Small Craft Advisory are
not expected to be needed. However, more adverse conditions may
occur on Thursday due to an organizing tropical system in the
central Gulf of Mexico.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             92  79  91  77 /  30  10  30  30
HARLINGEN               93  76  92  74 /  30   0  20  30
MCALLEN                 98  79  96  77 /  20   0  30  20
RIO GRANDE CITY         96  77  94  76 /  10  10  20  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      88  81  87  82 /  30  10  20  20
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     91  78  89  76 /  30  10  20  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63-KC
LONG TERM....66-Tomaselli
AVIATION...64-Katz