639
FXUS64 KBRO 010832
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
332 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Deep South Texas will remain under the northern periphery of an
upper level ridge through the period. Broad subsidence from the
ridge, and continued southeasterly surface winds will  continue to
support hot temperatures through the weekend. High temperatures are
expected to reach the upper 90s to just over 100 degrees this
afternoon, and may be slightly warmer Sunday afternoon with more
areas reaching just above 100 degrees.  Heat indices are expected to
peak out around 110 degrees this afternoon, with a few areas briefly
exceeding 111 degrees. The temporal and spatial coverage of higher
heat indices likely wont justify a Heat Advisory this afternoon,
though a Special Weather Statement will likely be needed. Sunday
afternoon will likely be a similar story, with heat indices
remaining just below thresholds for a Heat Advisory.

Broad subsidence aloft and relativity dry mid levels will keep rain
chances near zero through the period, however there is a slight
chance for some isolated showers and thunderstorms over northern
portions of the Coastal Gulf waters later this morning.

The enhanced pressure gradient along the Lower Texas Coast will
continue to support stronger winds and moderate seas along the
coast. This will continue to support a High Risk of Rip Currents
today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Friday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

500 mb high pressure initially centered over northern Mexico will
gradually build northwest through the period, eventually becoming
centered over New Mexico. This synoptic setup will produce dry
weather across the BRO CWFA. However, some model guidance suggests
that shortwaves riding within the mid-level flow may generate some
convection over the higher terrain of neighboring Mexico Tuesday
night and Wednesday night, which may then propagate into the
western portion of the BRO CWFA. The potential for this will need
to be monitored by successive shifts, but for now, the forecast
will be dry as previously stated.

Meanwhile, a steady increase in daytime high temperatures is also
anticipated. The combination of ambient air temperatures and
relative humidity percentages will support a HEAT ADVISORY for
portions or all of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley
Monday through Thursday, with areal coverage of the HEAT ADVISORY
likely to increase each day.

Finally, the interaction between thermal low pressure over Mexico
and high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will create a windy
onshore flow through the period. The gradient may be intense
enough such that a WIND ADVISORY may be needed over the immediate
coastal counties (Cameron, Willacy, Kenedy) on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

MVFR ceilings are expected to persist for the next few hours,
with VFR conditions returning after sunrise. Southeasterly winds
are expected to persist through the period, with wind gusts
picking up late this morning. MVFR ceilings are expected to
redevelop near the end of the of the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Broad surface high pressure over the Northern Gulf and a surface low
over Central Mexico will continue to support enhanced pressure
gradients along the Lower Texas Coast. This will support light to
moderate winds and moderate seas through the period. Small Craft
Should Exercise Caution headlines will likely be needed for the
Laguna Madre this afternoon, and may be needed for the nearshore
Gulf waters as well. Slightly stronger winds Sunday afternoon may
necessitate a Small Craft Advisory for the Laguna Madre and
nearshore waters.

(Sunday Night through Friday)
Small Craft Advisory conditions will exist along the Lower Texas
Coast through a majority of the period courtesy of thermal low
pressure over Mexico interacting with high pressure over the Gulf
of Mexico. Marine conditions may improve to Small Craft Exercise
Caution criteria Wednesday night through Thursday, with even
better winds and seas for Friday, as high pressure builds farther
west into the western Gulf of Mexico and weakens the pressure
gradient.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             96  82  95  83 /  10   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               98  79  97  80 /  10   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 99  81 100  82 /  10   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY        100  80 102  80 /  10  10   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      87  82  87  83 /  10   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     93  80  93  81 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ellzey-60
LONG TERM...Tomaselli-66