182
FXUS64 KBRO 260730
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
230 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 227 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

The mid-level ridge of high pressure centered across West Texas
gradually works east through Thursday, with a weak surface high
persisting across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, maintaining a
southeasterly onshore flow across Deep South Texas. PWAT values are
expected to dip below 1.8 inches into this evening, before building
back again Thursday afternoon above 2 inches. May still see a few
streamer showers this morning offshore and again tomorrow night, but
the best chance for rainfall will reside along the sea breeze
Thursday afternoon. Current POPs top off near 25 percent and
generally remain below 10 percent the remainder of the short term.

Temperatures may warm an extra degree or two today, potentially
pushing Heat Indices near 110 or briefly above for a couple of hours
this afternoon, despite the subtle drop in humidity this afternoon.
Heat Indices yesterday topped 110 briefly across most of the RGV.
Will again cover this with a Special Weather Statement and let the
day shift upgrade to a brief Heat Advisory if it becomes necessary.

High tide this morning around 10 AM may make narrow beaches more
narrow, but stay below any Coastal Flood Statement criteria. NHC has
a very low 10 percent chance of tropical development across the
southern Bay of Campeche over the next 48 hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 227 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

The forecast starts with a broad 500mb ridge over Texas with mid-
level inverted shortwave over the Western Gulf of Mexico. The
inverted shortwave will move westward Thursday night and move inland
over Deep South Texas on Friday. This will lead to isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday night across the Gulf
and across the eastern half of the CWA on Friday. The mid-level
ridge will build across the Southern Plains this weekend as a series
of inverted shortwaves move along the southern Periphery of the
ridge Sunday into Monday. There is a low to medium chance of showers
and thunderstorms (20 to 50 percent) Sunday into Monday. The NHC is
currently monitoring a tropical wave over the central Caribbean Sea
and has a 20 percent of chance of tropical cyclone development late
this week over the western Caribbean Sea or over the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico during the weekend. Near normal highs and lows are
expected through the period, with humid conditions briefly pushing
Heat Indices towards 110 degrees each afternoon. Patchy fog may be
possible each morning, mainly across the ranchlands.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period with
southeasterly winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 227 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Now through Thursday...High pressure across the eastern Gulf of
Mexico will maintain southeasterly onshore flow through Thursday. A
brief lull in tropical moisture may keep any streamer shower or
thunderstorm activity limited into Thursday. Rain chances begin to
increase once again Thursday afternoon into the long term period.
The National Hurricane Center has a very low 10 percent chance of
tropical development across the southern Bay of Campeche through the
next 48 hours.

Thursday night through Tuesday...High pressure will maintain
southeasterly onshore flow across the lower Texas coastal waters.
Abundant tropical moisture will lead to showers and thunderstorms
each day, especially late night into early mornings before moving
onshore with any sea breeze. Small Craft Caution conditions are
possible on Friday and Saturday, mainly across the bay. The
National Hurricane Center has a 20 percent chance of tropical
development across the Bay of Campeche over the next 7 days. Any
development could increase rain chances, winds, and seas for the
weekend into early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             94  80  94  82 /  10  10  20  20
HARLINGEN               95  77  94  78 /  10  10  20  10
MCALLEN                 97  80  96  80 /   0   0  20   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         96  78  95  79 /   0   0  20   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      88  83  88  83 /  10  10  20  20
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     91  79  92  80 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56-Hallman
LONG TERM....63-KC
AVIATION...56-Hallman