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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
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716 FXUS64 KBRO 251754 AAB AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1254 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 318 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 An upper-level ridge over the western US will keep things fairly quiet through the short term period. Skies will likely range from partly cloudy to mostly sunny this afternoon, fostering additional heating and warmer high temperatures. Lingering moisture will support PWATs >2 and CAPE values above 1500 J/kg. This combination could support some isolated convection along the seabreeze this afternoon. The best chances for showers and thunderstorms look to be located along and east of I-69C. Conditions look to dry out Wednesday, with rain chances remaining near zero through the day. Mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s could allow heat indices to approach Heat Advisory thresholds Wednesday afternoon. The spatial and temporal coverage of these higher heat indices looks to remain too low to justify an advisory. Favorable beach conditions look to return for the period, with slight seas supporting a low risk of rip currents. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 318 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 The most recent tropical outlook from NHC has a 20 percent chance of tropical development across the Bay of Campeche through the next 7 days. At the moment, this would keep most tropical impacts next weekend generally toward Veracruz, but an increased chance of rain, seas, and dangerous rip currents is possible along the lower Texas coast Sunday into Monday. The mid-level ridge remains anchored across Texas this week before swinging over the Southeast through the weekend, keeping an avenue for tropical moisture and onshore flow across Deep South Texas through the forecast period. The NBM maintains convection offshore, especially overnight into each morning, then brings rain chances inland each afternoon, generally with the sea breeze. A rather typical summer setup, with abundant tropical moisture, making any shower or storm very efficient rain makers. PWAT values rise to above 2 inches late week, near and above the 90th percentile for late June, with the highest PWAT values of near daily max values of 2.3 to 2.4 inches arriving Friday afternoon. Near normal highs and lows are expected through the long term, with humid conditions briefly pushing Heat Indices towards 110 degrees each afternoon. Sea breeze convection may limit highs a degree or two and then stifle Heat Indices as well where any showers or storms persist. Patchy fog may be possible each morning, mainly across the ranchlands. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1254 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 June will continue to act like it for the Valley terminals for the next 24 hours and beyond. The main issue for early this afternoon is the sea breeze and any isolated convection...which latest radar and satellite trends favors Harlingen/Valley for potential impacts. That said...atmospheric dry air and high pressure dominating the surface and aloft favors little more than a brief period of visibility restrictions...with no thunder. Due to low confidence have gone with VCSH...with nothing at Brownsville which is south of any developing activity and soon will be behind the sea breeze. Any showers should dissipate by the time they reach McAllen. As for that sea breeze...domninant winds are more east-southeast behind it rather than due east as broader southeasterly low level takes control. Expect a few gusts near 20 knots but that`s about all. Winds slide back to southeast and go light but not calm after 10 PM or so...ensuring no visibility restrictions. Trends favor no lowering ceilings as well with just few-scattered MVFR cumulus at best. For Wednesday...some CAMs are showing encroaching/developing isolated showers along the sea breeze just before noon which would likely reach Brownsville/South Padre Island airport first. Confidence is very low for this outcome and have not included at this point. The usual scattered to potentially broken VFR cumulus will develop by mid morning mainly at the lower Valley terminals. && .MARINE... Issued at 318 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Today through Wednesday...Favorable marine conditions are expected through the short term period. High pressure over the gulf will support light to moderate southeasterly winds and slight seas. Some isolated showers are possible today. Wednesday Night through Monday...High pressure works from Texas into the Southeast through the weekend, maintaining southeasterly onshore flow across the lower Texas coastal waters. Abundant tropical moisture will continue showers and thunderstorms each day, especially late night into early mornings before pushing onshore with any sea breeze. Small Craft Caution conditions are possible on Friday and Saturday, mainly across the bay. The National Hurricane Center has introduced a 20 percent chance of tropical development across the Bay of Campeche over the next 7 days. Any development could increase rain chances, winds, and seas next weekend into early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 93 80 93 80 / 10 0 10 10 HARLINGEN 94 76 94 76 / 20 0 10 0 MCALLEN 96 79 96 79 / 20 10 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 94 78 95 77 / 10 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 87 83 87 82 / 10 0 0 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 91 79 91 79 / 10 0 10 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ AVIATION...52-Goldsmith