Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
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995 FXUS64 KBRO 180545 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1245 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Showers and thunderstorms came through Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley this morning. While there was a good bit of rain that fell in the area along with some reports of hail as well. With the atmosphere already worked over this morning chances of showers and thunderstorms during the evening and tonight are very low. Conditions for tonight are expected to be mostly cloudy and warm with most lows in the 70s. Hazy and humid conditions are expected to persist through tonight and the rest of the short term forecast period. Similar conditions are expected for Saturday night as well. As for tomorrow, high temperatures are expected to be in the 90s, with lower 90s along the coast and increasing further inland to the upper 90s with most of Zapata in the triple digits. Models currently do not show any regions close to Heat Advisory criteria at this current point. With a mid-level ridge moving in aloft, Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will be entering another period of hot temperatures. Moderate risk of Rip Currents continue through tomorrow at the local beaches. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 A mid-level ridge over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will continue to be the main influence for the long term period. With the mid-level ridge in place and dry air in the middle to upper levels of the atmosphere, rain chances are expected to be very low. While on the surface, winds are expected to remain out of the southeast for the duration of the long term forecast period, which will allow for plenty of low-level moisture flow to move into the region and thus keeping the air very humid. The combination of heat and humidity will raise concerns for Heat Advisories. While Monday does seem to be very borderline at this point with max heat indices around 110. Temperatures are expected to continue to increase through the long term forecast period, and the heat indices continue to climb as well. Tuesday through Friday currently appear to be more likely to need Heat Advisories as the heat indices over 111 are more widespread on those days. Current model projections show that the max heat index at 116 for Thursday and Friday. Thus a possible Excessive Heat Warnings and Watches might be needed. The NWS HeatRisk Tool also highlights Monday through Thursday of having major to extreme impacts from the heat. Future shifts will continue to monitor this situation. Remember to stay hydrated, limit outside activities, and wear light, loose clothing to reduce heat risk effects. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1244 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Through 06z Sunday.....MVFR conditions were taking place at the terminals under a BKN-OVC deck of stratus clouds with ceilings ranging between 1,100-2,000 feet AGL with haze and mist restricting visibilities to 5-8 statute miles. MVFR conditions are expected to persist through the rest of the night into the day on Saturday. With plenty of low level moisture in place, there could be instances of IFR conditions that develop due to fog or low stratus. During the day on Saturday, expect for flying conditions to improve to MVFR and eventually VFR levels. Light and variable or east-northeast between 5-10 kts are expected to trend towards calm/light and variable overnight. During the day on Saturday, east-northeast winds 5-10 kts will return. && .MARINE... Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Tonight through Saturday Night...Light to moderate winds along with low to moderate seas will result in favorable conditions along the Lower Texas Coast through Saturday night. Sunday through Next Friday...Light to moderate onshore flow with low to moderate seas are expected to persist through Monday morning. Afterwards, through next Friday during the afternoons a locally enhanced pressure gradient will generate a bit stronger winds that will require Small Craft Exercise Caution during the afternoon and early evening hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 93 78 94 78 / 10 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 94 74 95 75 / 10 0 0 0 MCALLEN 98 77 99 77 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 98 75 99 76 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 85 79 85 80 / 10 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 89 77 90 77 / 10 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...64-Katz LONG TERM....64-Katz AVIATION...23-Evbuoma