Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
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817 FXUS61 KBTV 281744 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 144 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A series of fronts moving through will promote rounds of scattered afternoon showers over the next couple of days. Cooler conditions are expected for Wednesday with noticeably lower humidity. A gradual warming trend with mainly drier weather can be expected going into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 1222 PM EDT Tuesday...Daytime heating at the surface and cooling temperatures aloft are helping generate a few showers this afternoon. There is also a very thin line of heavier showers associated with a secondary cold front that will continue to move southeast across the region this afternoon. None of the showers have produced any thunder yet but it is a possibility in any of the showers that develop. However, there is no threat for severe weather. Previous discussion follows... A cold front will move through the area today associated with a low pressure system to our north. Along with the passage of the cold front, a dry slot has worked in which has allowed the threat for heavy rainfall to come to an end. This morning began with precipitable water values of 1.5+ inches as per RAP soundings, but PW values drop to under 1.0 inch by daybreak today. As an upper-level trough slides over the area today, steepening lapse rates will promote development of some scattered afternoon showers. A few embedded thunderstorms are possible but with only shallow moisture and instability, not expecting any severe weather. A secondary cold front will drop through this evening into Wednesday, followed by a cooler and drier air mass. During the day Wednesday, some widely scattered showers will develop as the front sags southward, but only have PoPs peaking in the 15-30 percent range. Highs Wednesday will be in the 60s to around 70, with refreshing dewpoints in the 40s to around 50. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 323 AM EDT Tuesday...The cold front will continue to push south and east away from the region Wednesday night, bringing any lingering showers to an end overnight. The upper trough will swing into the region from north to south Thursday and Thursday night. However, a much drier airmass will follow the frontal passage, with inverted-v type profiles and PWATs 0.50 inch or less. So while expect increasing clouds during the day Thursday, especially over the higher terrain, daytime hours will mostly by dry. That being said, have kept a slight chance of showers across far southern and eastern VT as better moisture will be poised just outside of our CWA border. Thursday night will likewise be dry, with clearing skies once we lose daytime heating. With dry air in place, light winds, and partly to mostly clear skies, expect decent radiational cooling both Wednesday and Thursday nights; lows will mainly be in the 40s, though some of the usual cold spots in the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom could well drop into the 30s. Thursday`s highs will be seasonable though perhaps a couple of degrees cooler than normal; expect most places to top out in the mid 60s to around 70F. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 323 AM EDT Tuesday...Ridging will build over the region for week`s end while the upper trough swings away out over the Atlantic. The result will be fair and dry weather through at least Saturday. Ridging breaks down by Sunday, with a few upper shortwaves progged to slide along or just south of the international border. This could allow for more showery conditions Sunday and Monday, though have stayed close to the NBM PoPs for now given timing uncertainty; this gives slight-low chances for showers for early next week. Temperatures will exhibit a warming trend though this period; Friday`s highs will be near normal (upper 60s to low 70s), but expect much of the area to be approaching or exceeding 80F by Monday. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 18Z Wednesday...Scattered showers will move through this afternoon and evening. The heaviest showers will likely cause visibilities to briefly drop into the MVFR range. However, visibilities should be above 5 miles for a large majority of the time at all the terminals. Ceilings should mostly be VFR this afternoon though they could drop into the MVFR range at SLK for period of time. Ceilings will steadily drop overnight and most terminals should be MVFR by tomorrow morning. Ceilings at SLK could fall into the IFR range for a period of time tonight as well. The rain showers will gradually become more isolated as the night goes on. Ceilings will begin to increase during the day tomorrow and most of the terminals should go back to VFR. Some rain showers will develop during the day tomorrow but they will likely be lighter and cause less visibility restrictions than today. Winds will generally be southwesterly this afternoon, gradually shifting to northwesterly by the day tomorrow. LLWS is not a concern. Outlook... Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Duell NEAR TERM...Duell/Myskowski SHORT TERM...Hastings LONG TERM...Hastings AVIATION...Myskowski