262
FXUS61 KBTV 280543
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
143 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A storm system will continue to bring showers and a few
thunderstorms tonight. Chances of locally damaging winds will
diminish through this evening as the main weather impacts will
become associated with heavy rainfall, capable of producing
ponding on roadways. Additional, less heavy or widespread,
showers with a low chance of thunder are expected on Tuesday.
Somewhat cooler conditions will follow for Wednesday with some
shower chances, and then a gradual warming trend with mainly dry
weather is favored through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1224 AM EDT Tuesday...Total observed QPF amounts for today
range from 0.5-1.25 inches, with highest amounts observed over
southeastern Essex County NY into Addison County VT. Outside of
some likely ponding on roads, no other issues reported. Observed
QPF amounts are under flash flood guidance and back edge of
heavier precip is sweeping through our NY counties about to
enter into the Champlain Valley. After this last line clears the
area, expect residual precipitation to diminish in coverage and
intensity, with just some light spotty showers expected for the
remainder of the night. There are some rumbles of thunder
within the line moving through Essex County NY, but no concerns
for any severe given loss of surface based instability.

Previous discussion below:
Active weather this evening is unfolding, as radar operators
monitor fast moving convection near and just west of the
northern Adirondacks. Main concern remains a damaging wind gust
or two in St. Lawrence County associated with a relatively high
amount of storm relative helicity near the ground overlapping
modest instability. As of this writing, one severe thunderstorm
warning has been issued. Rotating cells just to the south of our
area have resulted in a single local storm report of a downed
tree so far. Generally the greatest threat of hazardous weather
is through about 5 PM, then best effective shear shifts eastward
while MLCAPE likely diminishes. We are watching the possible
intensification of a line of showers over eastern Lake Ontario
that could be a focus of damaging wind gusts. Meanwhile, we have
maintained a Wind Advisory for the northern Adirondacks and
western slopes of the northern Green Mountains through 8 PM. We
have seen sub- advisory level sustained south/southeast winds
produce downed trees in portions of northern New York. The
persistent and unseasonably strong winds are coinciding with
greater leaf area of trees, likely making them more vulnerable
to these winds than expected. The uptick in southeasterly winds
towards sunset, with near summit level winds boosting to near 55
knots, causes some concern for more utility impacts.

Aside from the winds, heavy rainfall still is expected, although
excessive rain remains a low risk with relatively short duration
of efficient rain. Favorable ingredients for heavy rain include
850 millibar dew points above 50 degrees, excellent moisture
convergence along the deep layer flow (south-southwest to
north-northeast), and high relative humidity through that deep
layer. The surface cold front that these showers will be
oriented along tonight will slowly slide through northern New
York through early this morning and across Vermont by daybreak.
Winds behind the front will be relatively light and more
southwesterly. With continued southerly flow, the air mass will
remain on the warm side in the 55 to 65 range along with
moderately high humidity overnight. Tomorrow a secondary cold
front will approach from the west, and aided by another vigorous
upper level trough we should see more showers develop by
afternoon. Coverage looks more scattered than today, but as
temperatures rebound back into the mid to upper 70s with dew
points in the mid 50s, enough surface based instability will
develop to add at least a slight chance of thunder across the
region. Behind this cold front, winds will turn out of the
northwest allowing for some notable cooling and drying, with
fresh air bringing temperatures back into the upper 40s to mid
50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 308 PM EDT Monday...A shortwave trough embedded within a larger
scale upper trough will slide southeast Wednesday. So with daytime
heating, convective showers should develop, but are unlikely to
produce lightning with just 100 J/kg of CAPE around due to below
normal temperatures. Cool, northwest flow keep highs in the 60s for
most, with some lower 70s in southeastern Vermont. A dry airmass
shimmies south overnight, and rain chances end. A pleasant evening
in the mid 40s to lower 50s is expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 308 PM EDT Monday...Although model discrepancies exist, most
guidance suggests we`ll be in for dry weather. Given general
troughiness, if there`s enough moisture, then a stray pop up shower
could take place, but the vast majority of the area will stay dry
through the weekend, especially as an amplified upper ridge slides
east about next Saturday. So a gradually warming trend from 60s on
Thursday reaching back to mid 70s to near 80 by next Monday will
take place. Once the upper ridge breaks down or shifts east, then we
will observe our next chance for widespread rain sometime next week.
So it looks like an overall pleasant weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...Heavier rain from earlier this morning
has come to an end, with only some spotty lighter showers
remaining. Ceilings are generally VFR to start the TAF period,
but will lower to generally MVFR through the morning, though
expecting some intervals of low VFR mixed in at most TAF sites.
After 13Z, expect most TAF sites to lift to VFR with the
exception of KSLK and KMSS, which will stay MVFR through much of
the day today. Expecting ceilings to lower to widespread MVFR
after 00Z. Winds will be from the south/southwest at 5-10 knots this
morning, gradually becoming west this afternoon and northwest by
this evening. Some afternoon gusts 15-20 knots are expected,
especially over KMSS and KBTV.

Outlook...

Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Duell/Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Haynes
AVIATION...Duell