614
FXUS61 KBTV 251740
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
140 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will provide a pleasant, seasonable, and dry day today
with minimal humidity before a weak upper level disturbance brings
scattered showers with some embedded thunder through the forecast
area this evening through tonight. Then, drier weather will return
Sunday ahead of showers and thunderstorms producing precipitation
amounts of 0.40-1.30" on Memorial Day. Some thunderstorms could be
heavy with about 5% chance of flash flood. Cool and showery
conditions are expected for much of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1223 PM EDT Saturday...Overall minimal changes to the
forecast. Convective showers are heading toward the region from
Ontario but they weakened as they moved across Lake Ontario and
areas downstream of it. The thunderstorms are currently
restricted to western New York and farther south so it looks
like the first showers to enter the region will not have any
lightning. Elevated instability will develop later so there is
still the chance of some thunderstorms tonight. CLouds have begun
to spread over the region and they will lower and thicken as
the afternoon goes on. Previous discussion below:

Previous discussion...Weak ridging today will provide dry and
warm for at least the first half of the day across the forecast area
as 925mb temperatures are modeled in the the 18-20 C range. This
will result in high temperatures in the upper 60s to upper 70s with
warmest temps expected in the Champlain and Connecticut River
valleys. Winds will be light and variable, with clouds increasing
throughout the day.

A decaying shortwave paired with a warm, moist frontal boundary
moving eastward will bring an increased chance of precipitation late
this afternoon into tonight. Showers will likely be scattered and
light, but modest surface CAPE and additional elevated CAPE
indicates there could be some embedded thunder within them. In
thunderstorms, precipitation may be briefly heavier, but overall
minimally impactful outside of the lightning threat. Rainfall
amounts are expected to be around 0.03-0.30" depending on where
showers and storms occur. Nighttime lows will be in the 50s for
most, slightly above normal due to cloud cover and warm air
advection.

Tomorrow morning, conditions will dry out quickly, and while showers
and thunderstorms possible, it`s largely looking like another dry,
warm day with clearing skies and peaceful winds. Temperatures at the
925mb level will once again reach toward 18-20 C, and following a
mild overnight, highs will spring into the mid 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 406 AM EDT Saturday...Dry and mild conditions are expected for
much of Sunday night as clouds increase ahead of the next storm
system. Overnight lows will be on the warmer side ranging from the
50s to low 60. By Monday morning, winds will swings from the south
and increase as a deep trough tracks eastward with its associated
surface low moving the the Great Lakes region. Fetch will be deep as
well with a strengthening low level jet pulling anomalous PWATs on
the order of 1.5+ inches across the North Country. As divergence
aloft increases with the upper trough`s approach, widespread rain is
expected. QPF totals haven`t changed much over the last 24 hours,
but range 0.5- 1.5". Shear and increasing instability will support
some thunderstorm chances. Thunderstorms in this environment would
be capable of producing localized heavy rainfall which may result in
very isolated flash flooding (about a 5% chance). Additionally,
winds could be gusty with thunderstorms given a strong 50-60kt low
level jet at 850mb. Background winds outside of thunderstorms are
expected to breezy with widespread gusts of 20-30 mph and localized
gusts to around 35 mph in the northern Champlain Valley and along
the northern flanks of the Adirondacks. Warm aid advection will
likely push highs into the upper 60s to mid 70s. Precipitation
chances decrease late Monday night into early Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 406 AM EDT Saturday...Model output strongly favors the longwave
trough to settle over the North Country with broad cyclonic flow and
surface low lingering through Thursday. This will keep shower
chances ongoing with some periods of higher chances probable on
Wednesday as troughs pinwheel around the low. Deterministic output
diverges Friday into the weekend but consensus favors some eastward
movement of the longwave with ridging approaching. Some shower
chances could linger into next weekend, especially along terrain,
but temperatures should begin trending warmer. In general,
temperatures will be within a few degrees either way of seasonal
averages next week in the daytime while nighttime temperatures are
expected to be mild and range in the 50s to around 60 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18Z Sunday...All terminals are currently VFR and they will
stay that way for the rest of the day. Rain showers will pass
through the region overnight and there is the chance of a
thunderstorm at any of the terminals, but the likelihood looks
relatively low. The heaviest showers could briefly lower
visibilities to MVFR or even IFR. These showers will move out of the
region late in the night and partial clearing will develop. This
will cause the potential for fog to form at any of the terminals,
though the chance looks greatest at SLK, MSS and MPV. Any fog that
develops will lift soon after daybreak and VFR conditions will
prevail for the rest of the day. Winds will generally stay light and
variable for the entire TAF period. LLWS is not a concern.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Memorial Day: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Definite
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Storm
NEAR TERM...Myskowski/Storm
SHORT TERM...Boyd
LONG TERM...Boyd
AVIATION...Myskowski