Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
039 FXUS61 KBTV 120458 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1258 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers will continue for the next few days, generally becoming more prevalent during the days and diminishing a bit during the nights. Despite the many days of showers, the rain will not be enough to very impactful. Temperatures will generally be at or below normal. Steadier rain looks to arrive Tuesday into Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1250 AM EDT Sunday...Minor tweaks needed to temps/pops and sky cover, but overall fcst remains on track. Radar is showing some light rain shower activity acrs the central/southern CPV into parts of northern NY. Have continued with chc/likely pops to cover this activity. Temps have been holding on the warmer side of the fcst, so have bumped hourly values and lows up several degrees, given the clouds/precip. Lows range from near 40F NEK/SLK to near 50F CPV. Rest of fcst in good shape. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Diurnal heating has caused a few low- topped convective showers to develop, mostly across northern New York and the Champlain Valley. The strongest storms can have lightning and pea sized hail, but the vast majority of the showers have neither of those features. The showers will generally continue with their current coverage through the afternoon before beginning to dissipate this evening. They will most likely be lighter, more scattered, and confined to parts of northern New York tonight. Clouds have developed across the region during the day and will continue into the evening. They should partially dissipate across the Northeast Kingdom this evening where the 5000-1000 ft RH is lower and where the clouds are almost completely the result of the diurnal heating. These factors should allow a brief period later this evening where aurora viewing might be possible, before clouds move in from the west later in the night. The extent of this clearing is very uncertain. Western Vermont and northern New York look to be too much in the influence of an approaching shortwave where the lack of diurnal heating will likely will not be enough to cause the clouds to dissipate. Lows tonight will be in the 40s. The shortwave will pass over the region tomorrow and bring more daytime showers, though they will not be as confined to western areas. This shortwave passes to the east Sunday Night and brief ridging should cause it to be dry. For two days of on and off showers, QPF is relatively light. It ranges from a few hundreths of an inch over eastern Vermont to around a half inch over northern New York. Areas that see the heavier showers will receive locally more and areas that miss the heaviest showers will receive locally less. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 352 PM EDT Saturday...Unsettled weather is expected across the region at the start of the week. Monday morning will start off on the dry side due to weak upper level ridging, before rain associated with an incoming warm front arrives in northern New York sometime in the late morning to early afternoon, marking the start of some widespread, wetting rainfall across the region. Temperatures during the day will be seasonable, generally in the 60s. Overnight lows will be mild due to abundant cloud cover, with temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 352 PM EDT Saturday...The unsettled weather continues into the middle of next week, with an upper low located over Quebec and associated frontal boundary bringing widespread precipitation to the region. There is a little uncertainty with where the axis of heaviest rainfall will set up, with deterministic guidance in slight disagreement. Model sounding are not overly supportive with CAPE values less than 200 J/kg across most of the area, a rumble or two of thunder is not out of the question during the day on Tuesday, especially if clouds are able to clear out during the morning to allow for more diurnal heating. While ensemble guidances supports rainfall amounts less than an inch, precipitable water values will approach 1.25 inches, near the 90th percentile based on SPC sounding climatology for Albany, so trends will be something to monitor with future forecasts. Precipitation should begin to taper off towards Wednesday evening as the upper low shifts to the east. Temperatures will be seasonable during the day on Tuesday, with highs in the 60s. Overnight lows will continue to be mild with lingering cloud cover, in the 40s to mid 50s. Heading into the later half of next week, a brief period of dry weather looks to build in across the region, with high temperatures warming into the 70s. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 06Z Monday...Unsettled weather continues for the next 6 to 12 hours associated with a slow moving upper level area of low pres over western NY. Scattered to numerous showers are anticipated again today, with greater areal coverage, but vis/cigs mostly in the VFR range. Some lowering of cigs may produce MVFR conditions at times, especially SLK toward 10z this morning, with some potential at MPV/RUT and MSS. Showers decrease in areal coverage toward 00z Monday, with mostly VFR conditions prevailing. Winds are south/southeast 4 to 8 knots this morning and become light and variable as center of low pres tracks just to our south today. There is a <10% chance of a rumble or two of thunder today, but prob and confidence is too low to mention at any given taf site attm. Outlook... Sunday Night: VFR. Isolated SHRA. Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Likely SHRA. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA. Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA. Wednesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Myskowski NEAR TERM...Myskowski/Taber SHORT TERM...Kremer LONG TERM...Kremer AVIATION...Taber