Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
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454 FXUS61 KBTV 220714 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 314 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Much of the region will remain dry, outside some localized precipitation chances across St. Lawrence County. The gradual cooling trend will continue during the next several days, bringing high temperatures from the upper 60s to mid 70s down into the lower 60s to near 70. More widespread precipitation chances are still likely beginning Tuesday evening and continuing into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 312 AM EDT Sunday...Very little change to the overall weather pattern is present with a quasi-stationary upper low pressure offshore and surface high pressure nosing into the area. A subtle surface trough is still meandering through northern New York too. Like yesterday, this could spark a few pop up showers in St. Lawrence County this afternoon. Otherwise, mostly dry today, with thinning high clouds. Expect upper 60s to lower 70s east, and lower 70s to mid 70s west today. It should be another fantastic weather day. For tonight, the recent fog pattern should come to a temporary close. Increasing winds at 700-1500 ft agl and incoming clouds from the west should limit fog. Still, think some sheltered sections of far eastern Vermont may not be exempt from fog, though. Overnight lows will be warmest west where high clouds will start to shift into northern New, and the Champlain Valley due to light south flow likely remaining overnight with 50s. In cool hollows of the Dacks and the rest of Vermont, generally 40s are expected. About dawn on Monday, higher theta e air will edge east with return flow trying to establish itself after being absent so many days, but high pressure will also build southwards. Precipitation should develop along the St. Lawrence River, but will likely dissipate as the center of persistent surface high pressure approaches northern Maine. Easterly flow will advect dry air that will undercut moisture trying to advance. We could see some virga continue to propagate east, but any rain at the surface will likely stop at the Adirondacks. The high clouds from the weak shortwave shifting east and the reinforced east to southeast flow will help us stay cooler with mid 60s to near 70. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 312 AM EDT Sunday...Dry weather will continue to prevail through much of the short term period with high pressure keeping hold over the region. The ridge axis finally starts to shift eastward Tuesday night, allowing precipitation to make some headway into northern NY late. With rain to arrive later than previously anticipated, we`re now expecting fewer clouds Monday night and Tuesday, which will impact temperatures. More optimal radiational cooling Monday night will make for another cool night with lows in the mid 40s to low 50s. Meanwhile, have been bumped up Tuesday`s highs a few degrees since we`re expecting more sunshine. Highs will remain seasonable, in the mid 60s to around 70F. Tuesday night`s lows will be similar to Monday night, though this will depend on how quickly clouds arrive ahead of our next system. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 312 AM EDT Sunday...In general, the second half of the week is looking unsettled, though there are still a lot of differences in model solutions. Precipitation chances will increase on Wednesday into Thursday as a northern stream upper trough digs into the Great Lakes and pivots eastward. The uncertainty comes thereafter with how this interacts and/or phases with a southern stream system over the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley. And a potential tropical system lifting toward the Gulf Coast by the end of the week only further complicates matters. Note that the latest GFS phases the northern and southern stream troughs, tapping into the tropical moisture from the Gulf system, resulting in widespread rainfall across our region with multiple inches of rain. This is an outlier, however, and given the persistent pattern we`ve been in, favor something more like the ECMWF and CMC which keep northern and southern systems separate and shunts any tropical moisture well to our south. Given the range of solutions, stayed close to the NBM for this period. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 06Z Monday...Mid to upper level clouds across Vermont should limit extent and thickness of fog formation in the valleys, mainly across Vermont. Over northern New York, some fog has developed, but additional mid-level stratus has begun to develop in northern New York. For now, have limited fog to TEMPOs at KSLK for 2SM and KMPV for 4SM about 10z to 13z. Winds south to southeast at 5 knots or less, except at KRUT with speeds near 10 knots and KMSS which will be northeasterly. Surface winds settle around 6 to 10 knots between 14z and 22z before returning close to 5 knots after 22z. Outlook... Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Likely SHRA. Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haynes NEAR TERM...Haynes SHORT TERM...Hastings LONG TERM...Hastings AVIATION...Haynes