283
FXUS61 KBTV 161921
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
321 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm weather will continue through midweek. While chances for
isolated to scattered showers return on Friday and Saturday,
high pressure will quickly build back over the North Country to
support more dry weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 321 PM EDT Monday...The Rex Block pattern that has kept
our weather sunny and warm day after day will continue into
Tuesday. A corridor of slightly more humid low level air,
featuring valley dew points mainly in the low to mid 60s, is
focused over our region today. The heat and humidity is helping
to generate a lot of fair weather cumulus in our higher terrain,
but strong ridging aloft will cap these clouds through the rest
of the day such that no showers are expected. We`re struggling
to mix down the dry air aloft, however, which is keeping
temperatures slightly cooler than forecast.

Tomorrow a subtle shift of low level winds to more of a
westerly direction is forecast during the day, but really for
most purposes the sensible weather will remain the same so highs
will likely be about the same as today. The persistent, large
ridge in place will minimize cloud cover and 850 millibar
temperatures look similar if not slightly higher than today. We
had been anticipating some increase in high altitude clouds
associated with the tropical/hybrid cyclone near the Carolinas,
but the system has trended farther south such that this cirrus
that moves into our area will tend to be scattered rather than
opaque. As such, it still may effectively be sunny, especially
as one goes farther north/east in New York and Vermont. Any
cloud cover will not impact fog formation, which should be
rather robust overnight given slightly higher dew points than
yesterday. Then tomorrow night, marginally lower surface
moisture points to less coverage and duration of fog but
generally.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 318 PM EDT Monday...Wednesday and Wednesday night will continue
to feature quiet weather with warm temperatures for Northern New
York and Vermont. Maximum temperatures will reach the lower to mid
80s on Wednesday, with minimum temperatures then only dropping onto
the 50s to around 60. Winds will be light with partly cloudy skies.
There will be some chance for showers south of our forecast area as
remnants of tropical system pass along southern New England coast.
High pressure riding over our area should keep all of this activity
to our south.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 318 PM EDT Monday...Mainly dry weather will continue from
Thursday through Monday. Could see an outside chance for an isolated
light rain shower on both Friday and Saturday, but for the most part
no significant weather is anticipated. Really strong ridging remains
in place over the region. Temperatures will trend back towards
seasonal normals during this period, but mainly dry weather
continues.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 18Z Tuesday...A stagnant weather pattern continues with
terrain driven winds and nocturnal fog development. Expect
another round of VLIFR conditions due to fog at MPV and SLK,
with MSS also likely periodic fog given persistence. Humidity
levels are somewhat higher than yesterday, which should support
greater chances of fog at EFK, but for now have BR until
confidence increases. Elsewhere, VFR conditions will continue
with light wind.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Wednesday: VFR. Patchy BR.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Kutikoff