849
FXUS61 KBTV 110625
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
225 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue to be possible
today with a rising chance for additional activity on Saturday as
the region remains in a humid and unstable pattern. A weak frontal
passage will increase chances for showers and thunderstorms again
Sunday into Monday, with drier but continued hot and humid weather
expected for the remainder of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 225 AM EDT Friday...Isolated showers with a few embedded
rumbles of thunder continue to develop across the region overnight
as the base of an upper trough swings through and latest RAP
analysis shows MUCAPEs upwards of 2000 J/kg. While much drier mid-
level air entrains into the region today, soundings continue to show
tall skinny CAPE profiles up to 1000 J/kg with 0-6km bulk shear
around 40kts. This should be sufficient enough to produce some more
isolated convection through the day, though it should have much less
coverage than yesterday and remain sub-severe. This idea is well
supported by the latest CAMs, as well as SPC which has kept our
region in a general thunder risk for today. Anything that does
develop should wane after sunset tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 225 AM EDT Friday...For Saturday, guidance has done an about-
face compared to yesterdays 00Z runs which were dry. Now, the
general model consensus has displaced the ridge that was forecast to
build over the region to our north, putting the forecast area into
closer to zonal flow allowing some convective debris from ongoing
storms over the central CONUS to track through. In collaboration
with surrounding offices, we`ve offered chance PoPs for showers and
thunderstorms to account for this, and at this time strong storms
don`t appear to be in the cards.

Finally for Sunday, the forecast remains on track for a shortwave
trough digging into the Great Lakes to advance a weak cold front
towards the region. Increasing southwesterly flow will continue to
provide a warm and moist atmosphere supporting showers and isolated
thunderstorm to become likely across western portions of the CWA by
Sunday afternoon, moving east into Vermont Sunday evening. Pockets
of heavy rain will certainly be likely as PWATs surge towards 2" and
warm cloud depths deepen to near 13kft.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 225 AM EDT Friday...Main emphasis of northern stream shortwave
and trough lifting NE across Ontario/Quebec but still moving through
CWA on the backside of warm upper level ridge for Sunday night -
Monday. Enough instability and moisture for showers and t-storms
Sunday afternoon through Monday with PWATS > 1.5 inches so will need
to monitor for heavy rain threat.

Thereafter...Eastern CONUS Heat ridge builds again for the rest of
the week, but as we get into the latter part of the week will need
to see how northern stream flow tries to breakdown the ridge
bringing more shower/t-storm activity and where is that magical
boundary that will be the focus for multiple activity and possible
flooding as PWATS climb back to 1.5-2 inches.

It will be very warm-hot with 850mb temps possibly reaching 17-20C
and 925mb temps reaching 23-25C at its peak. Dewpoints likely in the
60s for much of the duration and even some low 70s. It won`t be the
intensity like late June but it will be a cumulative heat stretch
impact.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 00Z Saturday...Brief MVFR/IFR conditions remain possible
with isolated to scattered thunderstorms; otherwise VFR
conditions should continue through about 06Z. Most likely sites
to see thunderstorms in the next six hours continues to be PBG
and MPV based on radar trends. After that time, think there is
enough cloud cover and low level southerly winds in Vermont to
limit fog development with fog more favored at MSS and SLK even
if little or no rain falls as an inversion will develop.
Conditionally if rain falls at BTV there may be fog development
overnight, and EFK and MPV are climatologically favored to see
at least some fog between 06 and 12Z. Winds will be continue to
be light/terrain driven with very weak pressure fields over the
area through the period. Precipitation chances dwindle after 06Z
with dry conditions especially after 12Z.

Outlook...

Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance TSRA, Slight
chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Lahiff
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...Kutikoff