242
FXUS61 KBTV 250431
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1231 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
After another day of mostly dry weather today, the next chances
for rain arrive tomorrow through Thursday as a series of fronts
move through, before drier weather returns for the end of the
week. After a brief cool down on Wednesday, temperatures will
return to near normal for the remainder of the period.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1227 AM EDT Wednesday...Showers continue to spread across
northern NY early this morning, and will likely make it into
northern/western VT in the next few hours. Clouds are likewise
spreading overhead, and only the Northeast Kingdom has yet to
see overcast conditions. Temperatures are mainly in the upper
40s to upper 50s, and with increasing clouds, don`t anticipate
a whole lot more additional cooling. Have made some adjustments
to PoPs and sky cover to match the latest radar/satellite
trends, but overall the forecast is in good shape and no
significant changes were needed.

Previous discussion...It`s been a dry and seasonably warm day
across the region today, albeit a bit cloudy than the last
couple of days. The dry weather will come to an end this evening
as an upper level trough over the Great Lakes pivots eastward
towards Quebec, with the accompanying surface low and associated
frontal boundary following, bringing a wetting rainfall to the
region. Cloud cover will continue to increase as we head into
the evening and overnight hours before showers begin to push
into northern New York and slowly work eastward late tonight.
Although the showers will be fairly widespread as they move in,
the will likely wane in coverage as they move into the Champlain
Valley, although they will become more numerous late in the
Wednesday and continue into Thursday. A few rumbles of thunder
may be possible, especially across northern New York, but
instability is rather limited for any severe threat. Rainfall
amounts will generally be between 0.5 to 1.25 inches of
rainfall, with the highest amounts seen across the Adirondacks
and the spine of the Greens. Winds will be rather breezy,
especially Wednesday evening as a low-level jet moves overhead
especially across Vermont and Lake Champlain with gusts between
20 to 25mph. Temperatures tomorrow will be on the cool side,
with daytime high temperatures generally in the upper 50s to low
60s as cool maritime air is ushered in from southeasterly flow.
Overnight lows Wednesday night will be on the milder side due
to increased cloud cover and ongoing precipitation, with
temperatures in the upper 40s and 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 355 PM EDT Tuesday...An upper level trough will slide
into the forecast area on Thursday, bringing more precipitation
in two parts. First, a warm front is expected to be crossing the
area Thursday morning, bringing 50-80% chances of precipitation
with highest probability of rain in the Champlain Valley and
east. Low topped thunderstorms are still possible, mainly for
the St. Lawrence Valley, as models are projecting up to 500-1000
J/kg of CAPE across northern New York Thursday. Modeled
precipitable water values drop throughout the day Thursday,
decreasing PoPs into the afternoon.

However, a cold front will sweep through as well, bringing a
renewed chance of precipitation later in the day. Total
additional precipitation will be around 0.10-0.50 inches. The
day should start out slightly gusty as well out of the south,
but winds will decrease throughout the day, turning more
westerly by Thursday evening. West of the Greens, the warm front
may allow temperatures to climb slightly above seasonal
averages in the upper 60s to lower 70s, though areas east of the
Greens may remain closer to climatological normals in the 60s.

Thursday night and Friday may see some light lingering and
wrap- around showers. PoPs drop off quickly Thursday evening,
but there is still about 20-40% chance of some showers Thursday
night into Friday morning. Lows will take a hit in the
Adirondacks Thursday night, dropping into the 40s, otherwise
lows in the 50s are expected for most elsewhere. Friday,
temperatures will be around seasonable in the mid 60s to lower
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 355 PM EDT Tuesday...After light lingering and wrap-
around showers in eastern Vermont taper off Friday, high
pressure will move in to replace the previous upper low, and we
begin another extended stretch of drier weather. Temperatures
will generally be slightly average with highs in the upper 60s
to mid 70s and lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Fog formation
continues to be a possibility each night under light boundary
layer winds and clearing skies. Next chance of precipitation
will be early to mid next week with models showing discrepancies
of timing of a cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 00Z Thursday...VFR conditions will prevail at all
terminals for the first half of the forecast period. Cloud cover
is expected to increase overnight ahead of an incoming frontal
boundary that will bring showers to the region, arriving at
KMSS/KSLK around 07Z and continuing to move eastward. Some MVFR
ceilings are expected towards 12Z as the showers continue to
move in. Reductions in visibility may also be possible with
these showers. Winds will generally be south/southeast between
6-12 kts throughout the forecast period, with some gusts around
15 kts possible during the afternoon. Some LLWS may be possible
at the end of the forecast period as a low level jet moves
through the region, especially across northern New York.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Definite
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Hastings/Kremer
SHORT TERM...Storm
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...Neiles