Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
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504 FXUS61 KBTV 200752 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 352 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A backdoor cold front will bring a slim chance for some light rain showers today. Weather conditions will become dry once again heading into next week, but with more seasonable temperatures of 60s to lower 70s during the day and lower 40s to lower 50s at night. Chances for rain will increase for the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 351 AM EDT Friday...An upper level low is spinning in the Gulf of Maine with attendant surface lows to its south and east. We are on the subsident side of low pressure, but as high pressure builds south of Newfoundland towards Quebec Province, a backdoor front will slide southwest. It still appears that a few pinprick showers could develop, with a focus better chances (we`re still talking just 20-30 percent) over Orange and Addison Counties in Vermont. Highs will start to come down as cooler air begins to infiltrate. Anticipate 70s to near 80 today. Overnight lows should be cool, although there are some competing factors like clouds, and a little bit of light southeast flow that may hang on. Generally upper 40s to upper 50s should be the norm. On Saturday, a little wrap around moisture from coastal low pressure near the 40 N, 70 W benchmark may rotate into southern Vermont and parts of the Adirondacks. Some slight chances are shown during the day, but again, it`d amount to very little, if any rain. Temperatures will be in the 70s across the region Saturday afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 351 AM EDT Friday...Ridging amplifies out of eastern Canada Saturday night and Sunday eliminating shower chances. 925-850mb remain cooler than recent conditions and combines with at least partially cloudy skies supporting temperatures around seasonal averages with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 351 AM EDT Friday...Dry conditions are highly favored early next week with high pressure remaining over the North Country. Model consensus is increasingly consolidating on isolated to scattered showers Monday night through Tuesday night as low pressure is expected to stall over the Great Lake region pushing a boundary into northern New York. Ensembles and deterministic continue to coalesce into a significant pattern shift mid week onward with the North Country under a large area of surface confluence with low pressure just west allowing for southerly flow to efficiently transport moisture into the Northeast. Daily precipitation chances are favored with temperatures ranging in the 60s to around 70 degrees. Models diverge on timing of waves, but agree that at least scattered showers are increasing in probability. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 06Z Saturday... On top of fog formation, some low stratus around 500-1100 ft agl have developed north of Route 11 and east of Lake Champlain, impacting KBTV and KMSS. Fog and low stratus will diminish about 12z-13z. A backdoor front will slide southwest around 15z-21z. A spot shower is possible, but less than 20 percent probability of occurrence mostly over Vermont terminals. There will be a preference for east to northeast winds, but terrain upslope flow in the afternoon may result in some variability in direction. Wind speeds will generally be 4 to 8 knots, trending light and variable after 00z Saturday. Outlook... Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haynes NEAR TERM...Haynes SHORT TERM...Boyd LONG TERM...Boyd AVIATION...Haynes