088
FXUS61 KBTV 011735
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
135 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warming trend is expected through the weekend into early next week
with many places warming into the 80s each day. Dry weather is also
expected to continue with high pressure expected to remain entrenched
across the region. As it stands, the next chances for any appreciable
rainfall aren`t until Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 135 PM EDT Saturday...Main change to the forecast for
this afternoon was to decrease wind gusts as mixing is not
looking as ideal as previously thought, and winds aloft will be
weakening through the afternoon. Highs remain on track for mid
70s to low 80s.

Moisture will begin to return to the region tonight in the form
of clouds which should help moderate temperatures a bit and
keep them warmer than the previous few nights. The warming trend
is expected to continue into Sunday with most locations warming
into the 80s. Again, dewpoints are expected to tank in the
afternoon with plenty of dry air aloft mixing down to the
surface. Although it`ll be warm, the lower humidity values
should make it feel quite comfortable outside.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 318 AM EDT Saturday...North Country Chamber of Commerce
weather continues for the short term fcst with continued mostly
dry conditions and comfortable temps. Cannot completely rule out
a very isolated <5% coverage of a shower on Monday aftn over the
higher trrn associated with llvl east/northeast flow. However,
forcing/moisture is minimal and instability parameters show <350
J/kg of sfc based CAPE. Progged 925mb temps near 20C, adding at
least 10C, given dry air and decent mixing supports highs well
into the 80s most locations. However, humidity values remain in
the comfortable range as drier air aloft mixes toward the sfc
during the aftn hours. Based on dry air and lingering sfc high
pres, did trim lows at SLK/NEK by several degrees with values
mid 40s to near 60F for Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 318 AM EDT Saturday...Large scale pattern amplification
occurs for midweek with an omega type structure to the mid/upper
lvl height fields. Initially we are in the sweet spot for
continued dry conditions with comfortable temps for Tues into
Weds. Highs generally in the upper 70s to mid 80s for midweek,
supported by progged 925mb temps in the 19-21C range. Meanwhile,
lows should drop back into the 50s to lower 60s with comfortable
humidity values.

The long term challenge is timing large scale pattern change
toward the end of the week into next weekend and potential for
prolonged period of unsettled wx to develop with cooler temps.
Guidance has been struggling with development of deep/closed
cyclonic circulation over the northern Plains and how quickly
east this system tracks for late week. Latest trends have been
for a slower arrival to height falls and potential precip with
greatest probability of measurable precip arriving late Thurs
into Friday. Ensemble data continues to support a rather large
spread in potential solutions, so for now have cut back on
likely pops offered by the NBM and have chc wording, which wl
increase once timing becomes clearer. In addition, as mid/upper
lvl trof develops toward next weekend, cooler air at all levels
develops, along with more clouds results in cooler daytime high
temps, but overnight lows remain on the milder side. Highs
mostly in the 70s with lows upper 50s to mid 60s for late next
week, with pops in the 30-45% range.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18Z Sunday...VFR conditions will persist through the period
with cirrus clouds above 20,000 feet becoming SCT/BKN overnight
into Sunday and lowering to around 15,000 feet by midday. NNW
winds at 6-8kts this afternoon except locally ESE at KPBG, will
trend back to light and variable after 00Z, then 4-6kts from
the WSW after 14Z Sunday.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Clay
NEAR TERM...Clay/Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Lahiff