768
FXUS61 KBTV 180659
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
259 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather will continue over the next week with no
significant chances for rainfall expected. Warmer than normal
temperatures will continue through Friday, and then temperatures
will trend back towards seasonal normals.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 253 AM EDT Wednesday...No changes were needed with this
update. High clouds are drifting over the region this evening
and will continue to do so overnight. Clouds have been most
abundant over central/southern sections with more clearing
north, but do see some more breaks upstream. Hence we still
expect there could be patchy fog later tonight, even where
clouds have been a bit more persistent so far. Temperatures are
in the mid 50s to mid/upper 60s and are on track for the
previously forecasted lows. The forecast has this all covered
and remains in good shape.

Previous discussion...Ridge of surface high pressure will
remain anchored over northern New York and Vermont through at
least Wednesday night. Dry weather and warmer than normal
temperatures will continue during this period. Fog development
is expected each overnight period, especially in the typically
fog prone spots. There`s some high cloud cover in place and
expected to remain overnight, but shouldn`t have too much of an
impact on our max and min temps.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 253 AM EDT Wednesday...Thursday night into Friday, broad and
disorganized upper low pressure will consolidate offshore. Building
high pressure over Newfoundland and coastal low pressure near the 40
N 70 W benchmark will keep north to northeast flow across the
region. High clouds will be present, but there are questions to how
much of an effect it can have since moisture seems thin. Another
rinse and repeat of low temperatures around 50 to 60 will greet us
on Friday morning. Then a backdoor cold front will shift southwest
during the day. Whether or not precipitation can occur remains
questionable with little instability and plenty of dry air. With the
front sweeping through highs should top out in the 70s and quickly
cool off in the evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 253 AM EDT Wednesday...That high pressure building in
Newfoundland will build south on the western side of an impressive
upper low diving south across the Canadian Maritimes. This will
reinforce cool, dry air across the region. The result will be
another dose of no precipitation, but this time with temperatures
that will be around seasonal norms. By midweek there should be some
precipitation trying to eke into the region. There remains
uncertainty with the evolution of the trough against such strong
ridging north, but there still remains a possibility for rain for
the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...Persistence seems to be the best
forecasting tool for expected fog chances this morning and again
Thursday night. LIFR chances are certain at SLK/MPV with periods
of IFR if not LIFR for EFK and MSS, and MVFR fog for PBG.
Rutland had fog prior to this forecast period, but VFR will
prevail for the remainder of the night. BTV will need to be
watched closely as an easterly drainage flow from the Winooski
river has set up and may promote some advection for prior to
sunrise. Fog will lift/scatter 12-13Z with light winds and only
some high clouds for the day. Another round of fog is expected
tonight starting after 03Z for SLK/MPV and by 06Z for MSS/EFK.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Thursday: VFR. Patchy BR.
Thursday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Boyd
NEAR TERM...Boyd
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Haynes
AVIATION...Boyd