Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
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390 FXUS61 KBTV 161806 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 206 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS... After morning fog burns off, temperatures warm well above seasonal averages with potential for eclipsing daily high records at a few locations. Chances for isolated to scattered rainfall return for the second half of this week before high pressure builds back over the North Country by early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 206 PM EDT Monday...Only minor changes needed with the afternoon update. Dew points are not lowering as much as forecast so far in the early afternoon, and a fairly flat cumulus field is rather widespread across the higher terrain. Have added cloud cover to elevations at or above 1500 feet based on these observations. Temperatures range from the mid 70s to low 80s, largely on track with a few more degrees to climb as we approach our highs for the day. Previous Discussion...Today will likely be the warmest day of the with high pressure centered over the North Country. Slow modification of the airmass, cyclical drying and further warming, has resulted in high temperatures well above seasonal averages with broader valleys expected to reach the mid/upper 80s as 925mb temperatures climb to around 20C. Kept the idea that some high clouds could increase for Tuesday, but some models are slowing the northward progression; the result will be slightly cooler temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Otherwise, position of the high and 925mb temperatures will be similar to today. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The remnants of potential tropical cyclone eight will move up the Eastern Seaboard and toward the region on Wednesday. Any rain will stay to the south, but it will bring a deck of high and mid level clouds. This low, and a high pressure building to the east, will help cause more organized southeast flow and advect a cooler maritime airmass into the region, particularly east of the Greens. The combination of the cloud cover and the cooler airmass will cause highs to be slightly lower than the previous few days. Temperatures will reach the upper 70s to the mid 80s, still well above climatological normals though. The clouds should still be high and thin enough Wednesday morning that there looks to be efficient radiational cooling and valley fog in the climatologically favored areas. Lows will be in the 50s for most places. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The remnants of potential tropical cyclone eight will try to make their way into the region for Thursday and Friday. However, as they move north, they will be running into an area of high pressure trying to build south from Canada. The exact placement of the high will determine how far north the showers will be able to reach. Some guidance, including the operational GFS, is now trying to have the low fall apart and form a secondary low off the New England Coast. This would keep any precipitation south of the region. Looking at the ensembles, the current most likely solution is that there would be a couple showers across southern and central areas on Thursday while the northern areas would remain mostly dry. Therefore, continued slight chance PoPs in central and southern for that time frame. Ensemble guidance has come into more agreement in keeping the moisture a little farther south than previously, and shows high probabilities of northern areas staying dry on Thursday. A backdoor cold front will pass through on Friday and it could bring a few showers to northern areas. The EC and Canadian ensembles have mostly joined the GEFS in giving greater than a 50 percent chance of measurable rain across parts of the northern areas. However, a dry airmass during the time of the frontal passage and weak forcing will minimize the rain. Therefore, increased the PoPs in some of these areas to a more widespread slight chance. This front will lead to a drier and cooler weekend, though temperatures still look to stay above climatological normals. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 18Z Tuesday...A stagnant weather pattern continues with terrain driven winds and nocturnal fog development. Expect another round of VLIFR conditions due to fog at MPV and SLK, with MSS also likely periodic fog given persistence. Humidity levels are somewhat higher than yesterday, which should support greater chances of fog at EFK, but for now have BR until confidence increases. Elsewhere, VFR conditions will continue with light wind. Outlook... Tuesday Night: VFR. Patchy BR. Wednesday: VFR. Patchy BR. Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Boyd NEAR TERM...Boyd/Kutikoff SHORT TERM...Myskowski LONG TERM...Myskowski AVIATION...Boyd/Kutikoff