509
FXUS61 KBTV 241127
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
727 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier conditions will continue through Saturday morning with
northerly breezes today. Unsettled weather and cooler
temperatures return towards the beginning of next week.
Currently, Monday appears to be the most active day with
potential for thunderstorms and periods of heavy rain possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 649 AM EDT Friday...Minimal adjustments necessary with
morning temperatures starting a little warmer than expected for
broader valleys, especially the northern Champlain and St
Lawrence valleys. Otherwise, a line has developed along the
approaching front in the vicinity of Ottawa. Upstream
observations show that no rain has fallen as of yet with this
feature, but there is a sharp wind shift associated. This
boundary will pass through this morning and early afternoon.

Previous Discussion...After yesterday`s frontal passage, dry
air returned to the region dropping humidity. Another front is
expected to drop out of the north today keeping winds breezy
with another round of dry air moving in. The combination of
winds and lower RH may increase fire weather concerns, but the
threat of fire spread will be limited to where fuels are dry.
It`s likely that there is a mix of wet/dry fuels across the
North Country since rain has been largely hit or miss over the
last several hot days; so caution is advised.

Otherwise, temperatures will be trending cooler today from the
recent heat with highs running mainly in the 70s. Clear skies
again tonight and a weakening pressure gradient will promote
more efficient cooling with lows mainly in the 40s to around 50
degrees. While chances are very low, some of the coldest
hollows could dip into the 30s and may have a little frost;
this would be only possible in typically colder spots in the
Northeast Kingdom and the Adirondacks.

For Saturday, temperatures will cool another degree or two for
the daytime highs keeping conditions feeling pleasant. Late in
the afternoon, rain chances begin to increase west to east as a
weak boundary tracks into the western reaches of northern New
York.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 346 AM EDT Friday...Shower chances peak Saturday night as
a decaying boundary tracks west to east through the North
Country. Can`t rule out a stray rumble of thunder mainly across
northern New York late in the evening. QPF will be meager as the
parent low stacks barotropically in north-central Canada with
upper level support lifting north of the Canadian border; not a
recipe for strong forcing or heavy rainfall. Still a few
hundredths of an inch of rain are possible. Temperatures will be
mild overnight with lows likely in the 50s and warming into the
mid/upper 70s for Sunday; a few 80 degree temperatures are
possible in southern Vermont and portions of the Champlain
Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 346 AM EDT Friday...Models have been favoring a more
potent system to move into the Northeast on Memorial Day
bringing chances of more widespread thunderstorms and
potentially heavy rainfall. Projections are for a digging
longwave trough to tap into some southern US moisture and
advecting it northward. Upper level support isn`t overly robust,
but low level jet signatures do warrant some consideration.
850mb jet is on the stronger side for this time of year with
50-60kts across model suites; PWATs are anomalous as well -
above 1.5" suggesting heavy rainfall should thunderstorms form.
Synoptic QPF signatures are not overly wet, but still could
contribute 0.5-1.25" of liquid depending on which model verifies
best. WPC has included the Northeast in a Marginal Risk for
flash flooding, or about a 5% chance. We`ll be keeping a tab on
Monday watching this system`s evolution.

Otherwise, conditions will likely remain unsettled with broad
longwave troughing highly favored to linger through much of next
week. This pattern supports cooling temperatures back to
seasonal averages in the upper 60s to low 70s with showers
possible each day.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12Z Saturday...VFR conditions are expected over the
next 24 hours as any clouds that come through will be 4000+ feet
above ground level. We`re monitoring an area of precipitation
along the cold front heading southeastward from Ontario/Quebec
toward northern New York. While the radar reflectivities look
notable, we are not seeing much in the way of ground truth
precipitation amounts, perhaps a few spotty 0.01" of precip.
This level of precipitation as it is occurring is not likely to
impact any visibilities for TAF purposes.

The main focus of the TAF package is instead the winds. With
the passage of this cold front today, winds will be shifting and
gusting. MSS, closest to the frontal boundary, is already
showing southwesterly gusts 15-20 knots, and the other sites
will also begin gusting over the next few hours, potentially up
to 25 knots. Winds will also make a turn out of the northwest
with the frontal passage, and exact timing will depend on the
TAF site individually. Gusts will taper off around 00Z Saturday
as we head into the evening. High resolution models are hinting
at some low level moisture leading to fog development at SLK as
winds calm, so we have included some VCFG in the TAF there 04Z
Saturday onward.


Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Memorial Day: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Boyd
NEAR TERM...Boyd
SHORT TERM...Boyd
LONG TERM...Boyd
AVIATION...Storm