Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
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313 FXUS61 KBTV 101744 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 144 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level low pressure system centered over southern Quebec this morning will gradually weaken as it pulls away toward the Gulf of St. Lawrence. A continued moist northwesterly flow will bring abundant clouds today, along with scattered light rain showers, especially during the morning hours today. The influence of the upper low will gradually diminish with a trend toward warmer and increasingly sunny conditions for the Tuesday through Thursday time frame. Valley high temperatures should be well into the 80s by Thursday. The next frontal system is expected to arrive on Friday, with a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms to end the work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 135 PM EDT Monday...Cyclonic flow with weak sfc trof continues to produce light rain or areas of drizzle this aftn, as temps struggle in the 50s to near 60F. Overall, all elements are covered in crnt fcst. Previous discussion below: Low-to-mid level cyclonic flow continues on western periphery of closed upper low translating slowly newd toward the Gulf of St. Lawrence. At 1015Z, a large band of light rain shower activity extended from near KMSS ewd along the intl border into the northern Champlain Valley and across far northern VT. This band of light rain will continue sewd at 20-25 mph during the next 1-3 hours, bringing up to 0.10" of additional rainfall. Highest PoPs around 70% are across far n-central and northeastern VT through 14Z this morning. Appears most of the rain shower activity will shift south and east of the region by this afternoon, with chances for rain showers this afternoon (30-40%) generally confined to s-central VT and Essex County NY. Will see light SW winds shift W-NW this afternoon, and lingering inversion layer will bring abundant stratus and stratocu this morning, with just a few breaks possible this afternoon. Overall pattern favorable for continued below average temperatures, with highs generally in the mid-upper 60s in VT, and only upper 50s to lower 60s across the Adirondacks and St. Lawrence Valley of NY. These stratus should linger tonight, with any breaks in the cloud cover leading to patchy fog overnight, especially in the favored valley locations of central/ern VT. Overnight lows generally in the mid-upper 40s, except lower 50s for the Champlain Valley region. On Tuesday, we should finally see the upper low weaken and move far enough eastward that it loses its influence on our weather. Morning low clouds and fog will gradually dissipate by late morning/noon, with increasing afternoon sunshine and light NW wind conditions. Temperatures will begin moderating as well, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s, and possible close to 75F in the CT River Valley area. Carried just a 20-30% chance of a rain shower Tuesday afternoon, mainly across the higher terrain areas with shallow instability developing with peak daytime heating. Any rain shower activity will quickly dissipate during the early evening hours with onset of diurnal cooling cycle. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 342 AM EDT Monday...Any showers during the day Tuesday will wane Tuesday night with a loss of instability. Overnight low temperatures look to be seasonable Tuesday night, generally in the low 50s with parts of the Adirondacks dropping into the 40s although if skies are able to clear temperatures may be even cooler. Conditions trend drier by Wednesday with an upper level trough departing and surface high pressure building overhead. Some lingering shortwave energy will allow for some diurnally driven showers Wednesday afternoon, primarily across the Northeast Kingdom, but there is still some uncertainty regarding this feature and if it materializes. 925mb temperatures look to warm to 16-18C, which supports daytime high temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s. Overnight lows will be a few degrees warmer than Tuesday night, with temperatures generally in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 342 AM EDT Monday...After a brief period of drier conditions, chances for precipitation return Thursday night into Friday as a cold front passes through the region. Guidance has started to come into better agreement regarding this feature, with both deterministic and ensemble guidance showing the greatest potential for precipitation on Friday although the feature is still a few days away. Temperatures will warm for the later half of the week, with highs during the day on Thursday in the 80s. Temperatures will be warm during the day Friday, but showers will keep things a few degrees cooler than Thursday. Increasing moisture will keep overnight lows warm ahead of the cold front, only dropping into the 60s. In the wake of the frontal passage, drier and more seasonable conditions look to return for the weekend with upper level ridging and surface high pressure building. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 18Z Tuesday...A wide range of conditions this aftn from intervals of IFR at MPV/SLK to VFR at BTV/PBG, while rest of taf sites are experiencing MVFR conditions. Have used a 1 hour tempo group for SLK/MPV to cover IFR cigs potential, but feel conditions should trend toward MVFR in the next 1 to 2 hours. Utilizing the AvnFPS cigs/vis climo trend tool indicates based on crnt obs at 17z at SLK, probability of IFR/LIFR conditions increases to 30-40% by 02z and 50-60% by 05z, so have trended toward IFR by 02z with potential LIFR conditions by 06z. A similar type scenario, but delayed by a few hours is expected at MPV. Otherwise, a combination of VFR/MVFR cigs are anticipated at the other taf sites, with highest probability of VFR at PBG and MSS thru the period. Conditions slowly improve to VFR at all sites by 15z Tuesday. Winds west/northwest 5 to 10 knots become light and variable tonight. Outlook... Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos NEAR TERM...Banacos/Taber SHORT TERM...Kremer LONG TERM...Kremer AVIATION...Taber