591
FXUS61 KBTV 301745
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
145 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Other than a few possible rain showers over southern Vermont
this morning, dry weather will persist over the next several
days. After a cool start this morning, a steady warming trend is
expected over the weekend and into early next week. Our next
chance of showers doesn`t arrive until Tuesday into Wednesday,
with highs to be in the low to mid 80s by that time.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 136 PM EDT Thursday...Minor tweaks as the forecast remains
on track today. Temperatures expected to reach into the mid 60s
to lower 70s this afternoon with continued fair weather cumulus.
Previous discussion below:

Previous discussion...Off to a cool start this morning with
temperatures currently ranging from the low/mid 30s in the
Adirondacks to low/mid 50s in south central VT. Low pressure
scooting by to our south will keep mid/high clouds draped over the
southern 2/3 of our region through this morning. A few of the
showers associated with this system may make it into far southern
Rutland/Windsor Counties, but overall expect a dry day for the North
Country and Vermont. Sunshine will increase through the afternoon as
the low and cloud cover shift to the east. Ridging will begin to
build in behind the low, keeping conditions dry through Friday.
Today will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday as highs are
expected to reach into the mid 60s to low 70s. Tonight will be
another cool night; the cold hollows in the Adirondacks and
Northeast Kingdom could well see patchy frost as they dip into the
mid 30s. Elsewhere, lows will generally be in the 40s. Friday will
feature abundant sunshine with just a few passing clouds. Highs will
be warmer than today in spite of continued northwest flow; afternoon
temperatures will top out in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 256 AM EDT Thursday...Very quiet weather is in store for the
region Friday nigh through Saturday night as deep layer ridging
builds eastward across the North Country. With the building ridge,
Saturday will mark the beginning of a noticeable warming trend that
will continue well into next week with highs climbing into the mid
70s to lower 80s. Plentiful sunshine is expected on Saturday given
strong subsidence aloft. Those with outdoor plans are in for a treat
this weekend but be sure to dress for to the conditions as
temperatures in the mountains will only warm into the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 256 AM EDT Thursday...The warming trend continues Sunday
through the middle of next week with temperatures each day a degree
or two warmer than the last. We have some low hanging fruit in terms
of record high temperatures at Montpelier where we are expected to
be within 3 degrees of record high temperatures on both Monday and
Tuesday. The aforementioned deep layer ridging will begin to shift
eastward by midweek which should allow for increasing cloud cover
Tuesday and Wednesday. The jury remains out on when our next
rainfall chances may occur but the latest 00Z guidance shows that we
could see some showers beginning Tuesday afternoon/evening and
continuing into the second half of next week. These shower
probabilities are solely based on the upper level ridge shifting
eastward and global guidance tries to be too progressive with the
breaking down of blocking patterns so it`s feasible to think the
rain chances may be delayed until later in the week. Stay tuned, but
in the mean time, enjoy some very pleasant weather for early June.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18Z Friday...VFR conditions expected to prevail for the
next 12 or so hours. Winds are picking up out of the north with
gusts 15-20 knots. Main aviation concern will be tonight after
winds come to a stand-still beginning at around 00-02Z Friday
for most sites. Conditions tonight look not too dissimilar to
last night, with high pressure providing clear skies, calm
winds, and falling temperatures. This could result in IFR
visibilities and ceilings in mist/fog at MPV and SLK 09-12Z.
There is the potential for MSS to briefly go down as well, but
winds look to remain sustained there, so the likelihood is
lower. Winds will return out of the northwest during the day
Friday.

Outlook...

Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings/Storm
SHORT TERM...Clay
LONG TERM...Clay
AVIATION...Storm