


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
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765 FXUS61 KBTV 062339 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 639 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Light freezing drizzle is expected this evening. Gusty winds develop overnight in northern New York before spreading into Vermont during the day on Friday. Snow squalls are possible Friday morning. Unsettled conditions return over the weekend with increasing chances for snow Saturday night into Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 558 PM EST Thursday...While a dry slot is working to reduce precipitation coverage this evening, many spots are still reporting snow, even some with steady or heavy snow. Have increased probabilities of precipitation over the next few hours. Freezing drizzle continues to be the main threat this evening as cloud ice disappears. Winds are picking up in northwestern New York, but have decreased winds and wind gusts in the forecast for the Champlain Valley as the wind direction doesn`t look as favorable there. Temperatures are highly variable depending on location, though temperatures are dropping quickly across the St. Lawrence Valley due to cold air rushing in as well as the Northeast Kingdom where pockets of cold air are getting stuck. Previous discussion...A dry slot is currently moving over our region, and is eliminating cloud ice in the dendritic growth zone resulting in areas of freezing drizzle. Surface temperatures will continue to rise for broader valleys into the low/mid 30s, though the ground remains frozen, so any liquid making it to the surface will freeze. A light glaze is possible everywhere, but some spots may see very little drizzle. This evening`s commute could be messy. Winds will increase this evening as a southwest to northeast low level jet develops on the backside of the system. Favored locations for gusty winds will initially be across the St Lawrence Valley before spreading across the rest of northern New York. Gusts to 50 mph will be possible and some isolated power outages could occur. Friday morning, winds turn westerly with downsloping conditions looking increasingly likely. Gusts to 45 mph could occur on the easterly slopes of the Adirondacks and portions of the Green Mountains with another round of mainly isolated power outages possible. These winds and continued snow showers along a post frontal trough could lead to snowsqualls early morning. Cyclonic flow aloft will favor continued snow chances through Friday especially for higher terrain. The rest of the near term portion of the forecast will be relatively quiet with temperatures just a bit cooler than seasonal normals during the day, and a bit warmer than normals at night. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 323 PM EST Thursday...A storm tracks out of the Ohio Valley and redevelops off the New England coast Saturday night into Sunday, bringing a period of snow to the region. The track will be far enough south that the precipitation will be all snow. Right now, ensemble QPF averages to around 0.35-0.45 inches for the southern areas, down to around 0.05- 0.15 inches along the Quebec border. This supports over 7 inches in southern Vermont down to around a few inches along the international border. The trend has been a gradual southerly shift in the storm track, but overall the forecast has not changed too much. The storm will be synoptic driven enough that there will not be too much elevation dependence, and light northerly and northeasterly flow will not cause any significant downsloping either. The storm is fast moving, but there should be relatively heavy rates to make up for that for a few hours. The steady snow will be out of the region by around mid morning but there will be some lingering snow showers for the rest of the day. Temperatures will generally be in the teens and twenties during this period. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 323 PM EST Thursday...Relatively dry weather continues for the start of the week, but moist cyclonic flow will keep it relatively cloudy and keep a few chances of snow showers in the mountains. The next storm chance is mid-week, but most model guidance keeps the significant snow to the south. A weak northern stream low will likely bring a few snow showers if the main storm stays too far to the south though. GFS ensemble probabilities of receiving more than a tenth of an inch of liquid equivalent snow are less than 10 percent, but they are closer to 30-50 percent for Euro ensembles, with the highest probabilities again farther south. Overall, a few inches of snow are possible from this event but any significant snowfall looks unlikely. The snow would again be relatively light and powdery. Another storm will attempt to follow this storm late in the week, and there is better ensemble agreement bringing the snow from this one farther north, but being a week out, there is even more time for it to change. There is also the chance of a changeover to mixed precipitation or rain, but model guidance has been trending colder and toward all snow. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 00Z Saturday...Multiple hazardous expected to impact the aviation community over the next 6 to 12 hours, which include pockets of freezing drizzle/-sn with light icing, developing gusty winds with areas of blowing snow, and occasional mtn snow showers with an embedded snow squall possible aft 06z. Areas of light snow and freezing drizzle with continue to produce a mix of MVFR/IFR, especially at MPV/SLK/EFK, while a mix of VFR/MVFR prevails at our valley taf sites. As cooling occurs aloft mixing will increase, supporting improving cigs, but gustier winds, especially MSS/SLK/PBG and EFK with areas of snow showers and blowing snow possible with localized IFR vis. Wind gusts 20 to 35 knots possible overnight into early Friday, along with areas of turbulence and shear, especially at BTV associated with cross runway wind from the west. As a cold front pushes across our taf sites a broken line of heavier snow showers are possible btwn 06z-10z from west to east with sharp, but brief reduction of vis and cigs at times. Conditions improve to a mix of VFR/MVFR at all sites by 12z with westerly winds 15 to 20 knots gusts up 20 to 30 knots. Outlook... Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with gusts to 35 kt. Slight chance SHSN. Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SN. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SN. Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SN. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for VTZ001>011-016>021. NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for NYZ026>031-034-035-087. Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for NYZ026>031-034-035-087. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Neiles NEAR TERM...Neiles/Storm SHORT TERM...Myskowski LONG TERM...Myskowski AVIATION...Taber