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000
FXUS61 KBTV 160516
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
116 AM EDT Tue Oct 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Some rain is expected tonight as a cold front shifts east
across the North Country. Locally gusty winds are anticipated
tonight ahead and behind the front. Relatively cool and dry
conditions will ensue before southwesterly winds result in some
lake enhanced showers heading into the middle of the week.
Temperatures will remain near to below normal with several
fronts expected to reinforce cooler conditions over the weekend.
This will also keep blustery winds ongoing as well.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
As of 116 AM EDT Tuesday...Temperatures have been pretty tricky
tonight as the advertised cold front is coming through the
North Country in pieces. For example, in Burlington,
temperatures dropped from 56 degrees at 11 PM and has dropped to
44 degrees prior to 1 AM. However, other sites in the general
vicinity show temperatures still hovering in the low to mid 50s.
The latest surface analysis aided by satellite imagery shows
the first piece of the cold front now through Montpelier and
Rutland while quickly racing to the east. The second piece is
over northern New York and looks to have just passed through
Saranac Lake. The overall forecast for temperatures is largely
on track but given the piecemeal front, some locations are above
and below current thinking. Winds continue to be of concern
tonight with multiple reports of trees and a few power lines
down in response to winds in the 20 to 40 mph range. These winds
will continue through the overnight hours but will begin to
slowly diminish through the Tuesday after sunrise. Also, a few
lingering showers can be seen on Radar, however, drier air has
begun to filter in behind the first frontal wave which is making
it difficult for any showers to develop/persist.

Previous Discussion...For tonight, a deepening area of low
pressure and its associated cold front will shift eastward.
Modest low-level convergence and veering profile with height
indicate favorable forcing for ascent. The last few radar scans
indicate showers beginning to develop ahead of the front, which
is currently positioned just west of the St. Lawrence Valley.
Cold air will quickly advect across the region sending thermal
profiles aloft below freezing. This will result in some light
snow showers across the higher elevations of the Northern
Adirondacks and along spine of the Greens. However, moisture
will quickly be scoured out of the area, resulting in a dusting
up to about a half inch at the high peaks. Winds overnight will
be brisk, especially between 00Z and 12Z Tuesday, with sustained
winds of 10-20kts with gusts up to 30kts possible. Winds will
be faster across the high terrain, which may be the end for leaf
peepers. Lows tonight will fall into the upper 30s to low 40s
across the region with low to mid 30s across the rest of the
North Country.

As we head into Tuesday, conditions will begin mostly dry. With
the cold air mass ushered in from the cold front, max
temperatures will struggle to reach 50 in the valleys with most
areas in the low to mid 40s. A weak trough will shift east over
the North Country allowing winds to become southwesterly. With
the cold air in place and the warm waters of Lake Ontario, this
southwesterly flow will produce lake enhanced shower activity
across Northern New York early in the afternoon. This will
gradually overspread the Adirondacks on Tuesday night with the
Champlain Valley largely shadowed. Overnight lows will be fairly
similar to Monday night. With this in mind, some more high
elevation snow is anticipated heading into Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /2 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 312 PM EDT Monday...On Wednesday, the forecast remains on track
for a cold front to track northwest to southeast across the region.
Morning rain/snow showers focused downwind of Lake Ontario across
the Adirondacks and northern Vermont will become more widespread but
still scattered in nature across the rest of the region through the
day, but the highest intensity will remain focused on the higher
terrain above 2000 feet where another period of northwest upslope
flow is expected keeping the ptype primarily snow. Snow levels fall
through the day though, reaching the valley floor by the evening,
where falling 850mb temps could support some decent dendritic snow
growth with some light fluffy snow shower accumulations possibly
reaching the lower elevations along the western slopes. In the end,
still thinking total snow accumulations by Thursday morning of 1-3"
in the mountains from 1500 ft to the summits, a dusting to an inch
from 500- 1500` and perhaps a few flurries at the valley floor. Highs
will only be in the 40s, and fall into the mid 20s to low 30s
Wednesday night. In addition NW winds will be picking up Wednesday
afternoon and through the night with gusts in the 25-35 mph range
producing wind chills falling into the 20s and teens and we won`t
even talk about how cold it will be on the summits.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 312 PM EDT Monday...Surface high pressure builds back in the
region for Thursday with cloudy skies in the morning trending
towards some breaks of sun in the afternoon. Temps remain quite cold
for mid-October under an anomalously deep/cold upper trough with
highs only in the 30s and lows again in the 20s and 30s. Could be
looking at some record low max temps, see climate section below for
those. Winds will continue to be blustery as well, gusting 20-30 mph
with wind chills in the 20s.

Some moderation in temps is expected for the end of the week and
into the weekend as southwest flow develops between the departing
high and an approaching trough/low to our west. Our next cold front
and upper trough looks to swing into the region Friday night through
Saturday with perhaps a repeat performance from earlier in the
week...lake effect on the front-end and perhaps some upslope on the
back-end followed by a return of below normal temperatures and
blustery conditions and scattered snow showers on Sunday.

High pressure returns for Sunday night into Monday with lows back in
the 20s and 30s and highs in the 40s

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...Ceilings and visibilities remain VFR
this evening as a series of cold front quickly push through the
region. A brief trend toward a deck of 2000 to 2500 ft clouds
will likely be seen across KSLK between 09Z and 15Z as some
moisture upslopes along the terrain before the atmosphere dries
out during the morning hours. Winds gusting in the 25 to 35 kt
range will continue overnight with a gradual trend downward
after 09Z for all TAF sites. Most sites will continue to see
gusty winds in the 15 to 22 knot range on Tuesday until the
atmosphere decouples after 21Z on Tuesday. Any remaining rain
showers will dissipate by 09Z as dry air quickly infiltrates
the lowest levels of the atmosphere.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Scattered SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Scattered SHSN.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Likely SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 357 PM EDT Monday...A lake wind advisory continues with
strong southerly winds continuing. A cold front will pass across
the area by midnight and winds will shift to the west but still
remain rather gusty. Expect choppy conditions on the lake with
waves on the northern side of Lake Champlain reaching 3 to 6
feet. This will impact Cumberland Bay and most of the broad
lake.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Below are the record low max temperatures for October 18, 2018:

Burlington, VT      39 (1976)
Montpelier, VT      36 (1976)
St. Johnsbury, VT   38 (1939)
Plattsburgh, NY     35 (1989)
Saranac Lake, NY    33 (2015)
Massena, NY         36 (1989)

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Clay/Haynes
SHORT TERM...Lahiff
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...Evenson/Taber
MARINE...Deal
CLIMATE...Lahiff