Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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765
FXUS61 KBTV 062339
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
639 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Light freezing drizzle is expected this evening. Gusty winds
develop overnight in northern New York before spreading into
Vermont during the day on Friday. Snow squalls are possible
Friday morning. Unsettled conditions return over the weekend
with increasing chances for snow Saturday night into Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 558 PM EST Thursday...While a dry slot is working to
reduce precipitation coverage this evening, many spots are still
reporting snow, even some with steady or heavy snow. Have
increased probabilities of precipitation over the next few
hours. Freezing drizzle continues to be the main threat this
evening as cloud ice disappears. Winds are picking up in
northwestern New York, but have decreased winds and wind gusts
in the forecast for the Champlain Valley as the wind direction
doesn`t look as favorable there. Temperatures are highly
variable depending on location, though temperatures are dropping
quickly across the St. Lawrence Valley due to cold air rushing
in as well as the Northeast Kingdom where pockets of cold air
are getting stuck.

Previous discussion...A dry slot is currently moving over
our region, and is eliminating cloud ice in the dendritic
growth zone resulting in areas of freezing drizzle. Surface
temperatures will continue to rise for broader valleys into the
low/mid 30s, though the ground remains frozen, so any liquid
making it to the surface will freeze. A light glaze is possible
everywhere, but some spots may see very little drizzle. This
evening`s commute could be messy. Winds will increase this
evening as a southwest to northeast low level jet develops on
the backside of the system. Favored locations for gusty winds
will initially be across the St Lawrence Valley before spreading
across the rest of northern New York. Gusts to 50 mph will be
possible and some isolated power outages could occur. Friday
morning, winds turn westerly with downsloping conditions looking
increasingly likely. Gusts to 45 mph could occur on the
easterly slopes of the Adirondacks and portions of the Green
Mountains with another round of mainly isolated power outages
possible. These winds and continued snow showers along a post
frontal trough could lead to snowsqualls early morning. Cyclonic
flow aloft will favor continued snow chances through Friday
especially for higher terrain. The rest of the near term portion
of the forecast will be relatively quiet with temperatures just
a bit cooler than seasonal normals during the day, and a bit
warmer than normals at night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 323 PM EST Thursday...A storm tracks out of the Ohio
Valley and redevelops off the New England coast Saturday night
into Sunday, bringing a period of snow to the region. The track
will be far enough south that the precipitation will be all
snow. Right now, ensemble QPF averages to around 0.35-0.45
inches for the southern areas, down to around 0.05- 0.15 inches
along the Quebec border. This supports over 7 inches in southern
Vermont down to around a few inches along the international
border. The trend has been a gradual southerly shift in the
storm track, but overall the forecast has not changed too much.
The storm will be synoptic driven enough that there will not be
too much elevation dependence, and light northerly and
northeasterly flow will not cause any significant downsloping
either. The storm is fast moving, but there should be relatively
heavy rates to make up for that for a few hours. The steady
snow will be out of the region by around mid morning but there
will be some lingering snow showers for the rest of the day.
Temperatures will generally be in the teens and twenties during
this period.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 323 PM EST Thursday...Relatively dry weather continues
for the start of the week, but moist cyclonic flow will keep it
relatively cloudy and keep a few chances of snow showers in the
mountains. The next storm chance is mid-week, but most model
guidance keeps the significant snow to the south. A weak
northern stream low will likely bring a few snow showers if the
main storm stays too far to the south though. GFS ensemble
probabilities of receiving more than a tenth of an inch of
liquid equivalent snow are less than 10 percent, but they are
closer to 30-50 percent for Euro ensembles, with the highest
probabilities again farther south. Overall, a few inches of snow
are possible from this event but any significant snowfall looks
unlikely. The snow would again be relatively light and powdery.
Another storm will attempt to follow this storm late in the
week, and there is better ensemble agreement bringing the snow
from this one farther north, but being a week out, there is even
more time for it to change. There is also the chance of a
changeover to mixed precipitation or rain, but model guidance
has been trending colder and toward all snow.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 00Z Saturday...Multiple hazardous expected to impact the
aviation community over the next 6 to 12 hours, which include
pockets of freezing drizzle/-sn with light icing, developing
gusty winds with areas of blowing snow, and occasional mtn snow
showers with an embedded snow squall possible aft 06z. Areas of
light snow and freezing drizzle with continue to produce a mix
of MVFR/IFR, especially at MPV/SLK/EFK, while a mix of VFR/MVFR
prevails at our valley taf sites. As cooling occurs aloft
mixing will increase, supporting improving cigs, but gustier
winds, especially MSS/SLK/PBG and EFK with areas of snow showers
and blowing snow possible with localized IFR vis. Wind gusts 20
to 35 knots possible overnight into early Friday, along with
areas of turbulence and shear, especially at BTV associated with
cross runway wind from the west. As a cold front pushes across
our taf sites a broken line of heavier snow showers are possible
btwn 06z-10z from west to east with sharp, but brief reduction
of vis and cigs at times. Conditions improve to a mix of
VFR/MVFR at all sites by 12z with westerly winds 15 to 20 knots
gusts up 20 to 30 knots.


Outlook...

Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 35 kt. Slight chance SHSN.
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SN.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SN.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SN.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
     VTZ001>011-016>021.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
     NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
     Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for NYZ026>031-034-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles/Storm
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Myskowski
AVIATION...Taber