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000
FXUS61 KBTV 091129
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
629 AM EST Fri Dec 9 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A period of dry weather and plentiful sunshine is on tap for the
North Country today and Saturday. A quick shot of light snow is
expected on Sunday with accumulations up to an inch possible. A
period of seasonal temperatures and dry weather is expected through
the first half of next week with temps in 30s for highs and in the
teens and 20s for lows.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 543 AM EST Friday...We have noticed considerable eroding
of the low level clouds over the last few hours as drier low
level flow out of the northeast has made quick work of the
residual moisture. The low level clouds have also shifted
eastward slightly with the increasing northeasterly flow but it
now looks like more sun is now in the forecast compared to the
earlier cloudy forecast. Nevertheless, the forecast remains on
track and hopefully you can get out and get a little bit of sun
today. A fun little fact - Today is the earliest sunset of the
winter season.

Previous Discussion...Moisture remains trapped below a
subsidence inversion which has led to a continuation of the
stubborn low clouds across the Champlain valley and northern
Adirondacks. Drier air continues to filter in aloft as high
pressure continues to build across the region but has struggled
to make it down to the surface. Forecast model soundings show
this moisture gradually waning throughout the day with the
Champlain Valley expected to clear by early afternooon while the
Adirondacks could stay cloudy until closer to sunset. This will
have noticeable impacts on temperatures across these areas this
afternoon as these low clouds will be very efficient in
preventing insolation. We`ve gone ahead and lowered temperatures
a degree or two to account for the cloud cover. Sunshine will
definitely be welcomed following the dreary weather as of late.
With skies clearing throughout the day, we expect clear skies
tonight and again on Saturday. This will yield a favorable
radiational cooling night tonight, especially as the high
pressure becomes even more established. The coolest temperatures
of the last two weeks are expected tonight with lows in the
teens for much of the region with some double digits expected in
our colder hollows. It should be noted that MOS guidance is
showing very cold temperatures, like single digits to teens
below zero, which seems very unrealistic as this air mass is not
uncharacteristically cool nor do we have a fresh snow pack.
Saturday is expected to be a rinse and repeat of today but with
even more sunshine.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 255 AM EST Friday...Light snow is looking likely for the
southern and western portions of our area for the second half of the
weekend as an upper shortwave will push eastward from the Great
Lakes and across northern New England. The weak surface low will
traverse over or just to the south of our forecast area, spreading
precipitation from west to during the day Sunday. The existing
airmass will be very dry, so it will take a while for the column to
saturate and precipitation to reach the ground. Temperatures will be
marginal, in the lower to mid 30s, though do expect wet bulbing to
occur as precipitation starts to fall, so it should fall as snow.
Given the lack of robust forcing and substantial moisture, the snow
will be light in nature. There will be a tight moisture gradient,
and models still having a hard time agreeing on exactly how far
north and east the snow will spread, so have stayed with a lot of
chance PoPs for central and northern VT, while snow is looking more
likely for the southern St Lawrence Valley, Adirondacks, and down
into the southern Champlain Valley and Green Mountains. Still, even
these areas will only get an inch or so at best, with just a few
tenths expected elsewhere. The low moves east by early Monday
morning, bringing the snow to an end after midnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 255 AM EST Friday...We`ll see a return to quieter weather for
much of the work week. Given high latitude blocking that will be in
place, upper low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will be
shunted south and west and down into the Gulf of Maine region by mid
week, while another broad upper low tries to move eastward from the
Rockies and across the Central Plains. This places us right in the
squeeze play under the narrowing ridge, keeping our weather dry
through at least Wednesday. Temperatures will remain on the cool
side for this time of year, with highs in the lower/mid 30s and lows
in the mid teens/lower 20s Monday through Wednesday. Uncertainty
grows thereafter as there is considerable model spread in how
quickly the ridge breaks down, allowing the Midwest low to progress
into the Great Lakes while a series of surface lows/frontal
boundaries tries to develop over the Appalachians/Mid Atlantic. What
this means for us is increasing chances for precipitation for the
latter half of the week, but exactly when, how much, and what form
it will take is still uncertain. Hopefully model trends will become
more clear as we draw closer to the timeframe in question.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 00Z Saturday...MVFR ceilings will linger at KMSS and
KSLK through 14-18z, otherwise expect VFR for the TAF period.
Note there are some SCT to occasionally BKN lake-induced clouds
around 1500 ft, but these should erode by 15z. Clear skies to
prevail at at all sites from 18z onward. Winds will remain
north/northwest at 5-10 kt through the period.

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SN.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The KCXX radar will be down through approximately December 12
for a scheduled pedestal replacement on site. This a critical
repair to ensure the operational longevity of the equipment.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Clay
NEAR TERM...Clay
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Clay/Hastings
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV