Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 202029
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
429 PM EDT Tue Apr 20 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A multi-faceted storm will approach the forecast area beginning late
tonight. Precipitation will begin as a mix of rain and snow, with
trace amounts of sleet possible. Rain and snow will continue
throughout the day tomorrow, with wet snow accumulating across
the Adirondacks and northern Green Mountains. Precipitation will
be heavy during the afternoon and evening. After 8 PM
Wednesday, precipitation will change to snow across the entire
forecast area as a cold front exits east. Strong northwest
winds are expected on Thursday in addition to lingering mountain snow
showers and below normal temperatures. Additional chances for
precipitation are expected for the end of the week, though
temperatures will return to near normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 419 PM EDT Tuesday...Tonight/Tomorrow Morning: A multi-faceted
storm will approach the forecast area beginning late tonight.
Overall, a favorable synoptic set-up exists with the North Country
being positioned within the right entrance region of the upper jet
stream by early Wednesday morning while the upstream upper trough
deepens. The first wave of precipitation will be observed during the
overnight hours tonight into Wednesday morning which will accompany
a stalled frontal boundary draped across southern New England.
Precipitation will be a mix of rain and snow north of the frontal
boundary (northern New York and northern Vermont), while remaining
rain south of the boundary (southeastern Vermont). Trace amounts of
sleet are also possible during this time along the front. Initially,
precipitation will be observed in two distinct bands with rain
occurring along the surface front located in southern Vermont, while
snow will be focused across northern New York beneath the mid-level
front. Regarding the latter, decent mid-level frontogenesis will aid
in generating accumulating snowfall, especially across the high
terrain of the Adirondacks.

Tomorrow/Tomorrow Night: The second wave of precipitation will be
observed during the day on Wednesday which will be heaviest during
the afternoon/evening as a cold front passes through. Accompanied by
strong mid-level frontogenesis, this cold front will cause a band of
heavy precipitation to develop between 2 PM and 8 PM EDT. West of
the front, namely northern New York, precipitation will be in the
form of heavy, wet snow where temperatures remain at or below
freezing. Meanwhile, temperatures are expected to remain above
freezing across southeastern Vermont. There also exists a slight
chance of thunder across southeastern Vermont during this time.
Colder air will filter in behind the cold front, causing
precipitation to change to snow across the entire forecast area,
mainly after 8 PM. Snow will continue through the overnight hours
into Thursday mainly across high elevations. Overall, snow totals
will be 2 to 4 inches at locations below 1000 ft across northern New
York and northern Vermont, with 4 to 7 inches at locations above
1000 ft. Less than an inch of snow is expected within broad valley
locations. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 2 AM
Wednesday to 8 AM Thursday for portions of northern New York.

Thursday: Gusty winds are expected on Thursday as the storm system
exits to our east. Winds will be out of the northwest sustained at
10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Mountain snow showers will be
slow to abate on Thursday as the upper trough moves directly
overhead. An additional dusting up to 2 inches is possible
throughout the day Thursday, mainly across the high terrain of
northeastern Vermont. Temperatures on Thursday will be chilly with
highs only in the 30s to low 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 251 PM EDT Tuesday...Low pressure will pull away from the North
Country Thursday night, moving into the Maritimes and spinning there
for much of the day Friday. As such, mountain snow showers will
linger into Friday morning, especially in the northern Greens. Light
additional snow accumulation will be possible. We should see at
least some sunshine by Friday afternoon, but brisk west winds and
highs only in the mid 40s to mid 50s will keep conditions on the
cool side.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 251 PM EDT Tuesday...The end of this week will feature fair
weather as ridging briefly crosses the region. However, our next
potential for widespread rain arrives late Saturday night into
Sunday. An upper trough will traverse across our area, with a
surface low to develop off the southern New England coast and lift
toward Nova Scotia/Bay of Fundy. Precipitation should be mostly rain
with this system, though the higher elevations will likely see some
snow showers Sunday night as colder air spills into the region.
Ridging and dry weather resumes by Monday, though it will be a
little cool and brisk with gusty northwest winds and highs only in
the upper 40s to mid 50s. Tuesday will continue to be dry with
temperatures warming into the mid 50s to around 60.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 18Z Wednesday...VFR/local MVFR will prevail through 04z
tonight with lower clouds gradually diminishing after sunset.
However, ceilings will lower again thereafter as a warm front
spreads precipitation across the region. Ceilings will become
MVFR and then IFR at all terminals from west to east 04z-14z.
Precipitation moves in 06z-12z and continues through the
remainder of the TAF period. Southern/valley locations will
generally remain rain, perhaps a brief period of mix with SN
and/or PL, but northern sites, especially KSLK and KMSS, will
see primarily snow. Visibilities will be MVFR in any rain and
IFR in any snow. Gusty west to southwest winds this afternoon
will subside to light and variable overnight, turning more
northerly around 5 kt after 12z.


Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance
SHSN, Likely SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance SHSN.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance RA, Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM Wednesday to 8 AM EDT
     Thursday for NYZ029>031-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hammond
NEAR TERM...Hammond
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Hastings


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