473
FXUS61 KBTV 070812
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
412 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A closed upper low will bring showers to the region today, with some
embedded thunderstorms possible. Unsettled and cooler weather
continues through the weekend, with showers finally becoming less
numerous early next week and a warming temperature trend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 408 AM EDT Friday...A closed upper low centered over the Great
Lakes will finally begin to push eastward, bringing more unsettled
weather to round out the work week. Showers will increase in areal
coverage towards the afternoon with diurnal instability, before
waning again in the evening. Some embedded thunderstorms will be
possible this afternoon, especially across northern portions of the
forecast area as model soundings show steep lapse rates and modest
CAPE values between 100 to 500 J/kg. Daytime high temperatures will
be in the low to mid 70s across most of the region, although the
broad valleys will climb to near 80. Overnight low temperatures will
be in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

The unsettled weather pattern will continue into the weekend, with
diurnally driven showers. Daytime highs will be a few degrees
cooler, with highs in the 60s to low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 408 AM EDT Friday...Additional shortwave energy rounding base
of upper level trough still over our region will bring more chances
for showers on both Saturday night and Sunday. This far out it`s a
bit difficult to time the shortwaves passing through, but don`t
expect both of these periods to be total washouts. Models did trend
wetter for Sunday though, so did bump up pops accordingly. Low
temperatures on Saturday night will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s,
and high temperatures on Sunday will range from the mid 60s to lower
70s. These daytime highs are a bit cool for early June.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 408 AM EDT Friday...Weather will remain unsettled headed into
the long term portion of the forecast. Chance of showers will
continue for Sunday night and Monday with upper level trough finally
pulling away from our region headed into Monday night. From Tuesday
onward the GFS and ECMWF lack much continuity between the two
models, leading to lower confidence in the forecast. GFS depicts
another system impacting the north country on Wednesday while the
ECMWF does not have this system at all. At this time looks like
temperatures will trend back towards above normal levels towards the
end of next week. Still lots of uncertainty in the extended, and I`m
sure we`ll get a better idea as we head into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Friday...Variable flight conditions across the
region tonight as a cold front continues to move eastward. With
plenty of low level moisture from the recent rainfall, some mist
and low stratus have developed across several terminals,
especially east of the Green Mountains with a current scattered/broken
cloud deck at 500 ft AGL. Improvement is expected by 11Z with
sunrise as fog and stratus dissipate. Pop up showers and a few
storms will develop beyond 15z Friday. Winds will generally be
south to southwest during the forecast period, with a few gusts
possible during the afternoon.

Outlook...

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Kremer
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Kremer