750
FXUS61 KBUF 101739
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
139 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool with a few sprinkles or showers through tonight. After
this, high pressure will build in resulting in a drying and
warming trend through Thursday. A cold front will move through
on Friday, resulting in some showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Stacked low pressure across New Brunswick province in Canada
will maintain a cyclonic flow aloft through tonight. With 850mb
temperatures around +4C, the northwest flow will result in some
lake effect clouds. Any subtle shortwaves embedded in the flow
will have the potential to produce some light showers or
sprinkles, but the vast majority of the time will be rain free.

Difficult cloud cover forecast tonight into Tuesday, since
despite the cool air aloft the flow will weaken which should
allow for some breaks in the cloud cover. Eventually, drier air
will work in and erode the cloud cover, but tonight it will be
difficult to pin point the location and timing of breaks in the
cloud cover. Any prolonged breaks across the Southern Tier would
allow for some river valley fog to develop.

Temperatures will be below normal. Lows will range from the mid
40s to lower 50s tonight. Highs Tuesday will be warmer than
today, but with 850mb temps only rising to +5C expect
temperatures to still top out in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The unsettled pattern as of late will come to an end by midweek.
Tuesday night, surface high pressure will build into the Ohio Valley
and eastern Great Lakes, with dry weather and clearing skies.
Favorable radiational cooling conditions will allow lows to drop
into the 40s in inland areas, with 50s close to the lakes.

Wednesday through Wednesday night, the surface high will drift to
the east coast, allowing for warm advection to ramp up across the
Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. Highs will reach the mid 70s in most
locations Wednesday after a cool start. A southwest breeze and
ongoing warm advection will keep Wednesday night mild, with lows in
the 55-60 degree range in most locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The longwave pattern will amplify again Thursday through Friday as a
mid level trough digs through eastern Canada and adjacent areas of
the Great Lakes and New England. This trough will be much less
amplified than the previous episode, and much shorter duration.

Thursday, a thermal ridge will advect into the Ohio Valley and
eastern Great Lakes ahead of the digging trough, bringing a very
warm and increasingly humid day. Highs will reach well into the 80s
away from lake influences. Thursday should stay mainly dry with
deeper moisture and forcing still well upstream.

Thursday night through Friday the trough will move across the
eastern Great Lakes, with an associated cold front moving through
the region late Thursday night or early Friday. Favorable forcing,
moisture, and instability will bring a chance of a few rounds of
showers and thunderstorms as the cold front moves across the region.

High pressure will build into the Great Lakes Friday night and
Saturday, then drift to New England Sunday. Associated dry air and
subsidence will bring a return to dry weather. Temperatures will
briefly cool Saturday behind the cold front, with highs in the lower
70s. Increasing warm advection will then allow highs to reach
into the upper 70s to lower 80s by Sunday.

Looking a little farther ahead, model and ensemble guidance
continues to suggest the western ridge will build east by early next
week. This may bring a period of mid-summer heat and humidity to the
region, with the CPC day 8-14 outlook showing high probabilities of
above average temperatures for next week.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Cool, cyclonic flow aloft will result in widespread stratus
with cloud bases mainly in the MVFR flight category. The flow
will weaken tonight, which should allow cigs to break up and
lift some, although uncertainty in the timing and location of
this. In general expect most sites to improve to VFR tonight.
The exception is KJHW, where cigs will be lower, and if they
break up there`s a risk for fog and IFR or lower flight
conditions.

Improving conditions Tuesday, with clouds lifting and
scattering out during the day. Mainly VFR, with high pressure
and light winds.

Outlook...

Tuesday night through Thursday...VFR.

Friday...VFR/MVFR. Showers and thunderstorms likely.

Friday night and Saturday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Northwesterly winds will diminish through this evening. This
will allow Small Craft headlines to gradually drop off through
this evening. More favorable winds and waves for boating will
return by the middle of the week.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Beach Hazards Statement until 6 PM EDT this evening for
     NYZ003>006.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
         LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Apffel
NEAR TERM...Apffel
SHORT TERM...Hitchcock
LONG TERM...Hitchcock
AVIATION...Apffel
MARINE...Apffel