862
FXUS61 KBUF 091444
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1044 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly dry weather through early afternoon will giveway
widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms later this
afternoon and early evening when another deep trough moves
across the area. Scattered showers and cool temperatures will
continue through Monday. A drying and warming trend will then
develop through the middle of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Late this morning, radar shows most of the showers from last
nights shortwave have ended. Visible satellite imagery shows
at least a partial clearing across most of Western NY. This will
result in breezy (gusts again 25 to 35 mph) and mostly rain free
conditions which will last into early afternoon. But the rain-
free weather will end quickly this afternoon.

Another strong mid level vorticity maxima will then rotate
through the longwave trough and cross Lake Ontario and
western/central NY during the afternoon. The increase in large
scale ascent and moisture along with steep low/mid level lapse
rates will bring increasing coverage of showers this afternoon.
A well defined near surface convergence zone will setup from the
Niagara Frontier east across the Genesee Valley and northern
Finger Lakes, marking the boundary between the general WNW flow
and the WSW flow forced by a backing of winds by the Lake Erie
breeze. This convergence zone will act as the initial low level
focus for increasing showers during early to mid afternoon, with
the resulting area of showers then moving southeast across the
rest of the area. The cool air aloft and steep lapse rates
coupled with synoptic scale forcing will support scattered
thunderstorms as well, a few of which may produce gusty winds
and small hail.

Showers will decrease in coverage from northwest to southeast this
evening as the vorticity maxima moves southeast of the area.
Overnight, additional weaker shortwaves, deepening moisture, and
even some lake induced instability will support a few more scattered
showers, increasing in coverage towards Monday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
An upper level trough over the Northeast will become elongated down
to the central Appalachians Monday through Tuesday. An upper level
ridge will nose into the Great Lakes region Tuesday night while a
shortwave trough moves across the Mid-Atlantic region. The ridge
will flatten out across the forecast area into Wednesday.

Cool, northwest flow with 850mb temperatures falling to +3C will
result in the coolest day of the recent stretch of unsettled weather
on Monday. Highs will reach the low to mid 60s across the lower
elevations and upper 50s to near 60 across the higher terrain. A
500mb trough axis and deep layer moisture will move across the
forecast area Monday. The cooler airmass may create lake induced
instability and scattered to numerous rain showers will track from
the Lakes to inland areas, with showers lingering the longest across
southeast portions of the forecast area Monday.

Showers will come to an end Monday evening. The upper level trough
will remain across the region through Tuesday night. Drier air and
low level subsidence will be increasing across the region, however
mostly cloudy conditions will persist most of the time. Tuesday will
begin the warming trend across the region with highs in the upper
60s to low 70s, mid to upper 60s across the higher terrain. Finally,
the elongated trough will move east of the region Wednesday. This
will promote dry and warmer weather with highs in the mid to upper
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A trough will deepen across the Great Lakes region as an upper level
ridge builds across the Rockies late in the work week. A strong,
southerly flow will promote warm weather Thursday through Friday. An
area of low pressure is expected to track across northern Ontario
and Quebec Thursday through Friday with a cold front impacting the
region during this time. There is low confidence in the timing of
the front, however this should bring a period of scattered showers
and thunderstorms. An area of high pressure is expected to move into
the region this weekend with medium confidence of dry, fair
weather.

Temperatures will begin above normal mid-week and fall to near
normal for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
There will be a brief break in the rain following the exit of
the frontal wave. Some lingering MVFR cigs, but mainly VFR late
morning into early afternoon.

Midday into the afternoon, another mid level trough will move
southeast across the area, and combine with modest daytime
instability and lake/terrain generated low level convergence
boundaries to generate another area of showers and scattered
thunderstorms crossing the area from northwest to southeast.
Expect areas of MVFR CIGS/VSBY to develop, with local/brief IFR
in thunderstorms. Thunderstorms may produce some small hail.

The more organized showers and scattered thunderstorms will taper
off this evening, although a few scattered showers may linger
overnight. CIGS/VSBY should improve back to VFR initially in the
evening, but areas of MVFR CIGS will likely develop overnight in
stratus.

Outlook...

Monday...Areas of MVFR with scattered showers.
Tuesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Westerly winds will ramp up again today, with another round of Small
Craft Advisory conditions on both lakes. Winds will decrease on Lake
Erie this evening, but Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue
much of tonight on Lake Ontario. Winds will be somewhat lower
Monday, but still expect choppy conditions on both lakes.

More favorable winds and waves for boating will return by the middle
of the week.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday morning for NYZ004.
     Beach Hazards Statement through Monday morning for NYZ005>007.
     Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NYZ010-019-
     085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
         LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Monday for LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Apffel/Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...Apffel/Hitchcock
MARINE...Apffel/Hitchcock