901
FXUS61 KBUF 080500
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
100 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers will impact the region overnight as an area of low
pressure moves through. Shower chances decrease Saturday with a
brief period of drier weather. Unsettled weather returns Saturday
night and lasts through Sunday with chances for showers and some
thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Mid-level low will slowly churn eastward and head into New England
overnight. We will see a general decrease in showers overall with
the loss of daytime heating. However, given the cool airmass aloft
(+5C/+6C at H850) there may be some lake enhanced showers east and
southeast of the lakes, especially east of Lake Ontario where deeper
synoptic scale moisture and lingering forcing remains overnight. Its
marginal, but with lakes in the 60s (+16C/17C) it certainly is
enough.

There will still be some showers east of Lake Ontario early Saturday
morning. After that, weak shortwave ridging gradually builds in
which will bring about a drying trend from west to east by the
afternoon. However, this will be short-lived with the next round
of showers and storms arriving by Saturday night.

Overall not quite as cool Saturday, we should see a decent amount
of sunshine too with highs peaking in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Saturday night another seasonably strong mid level closed
circulation will move from eastern Ontario to central Quebec
Province, with attendant DCVA/height falls spreading across the
eastern Great Lakes overnight. The forcing from the approaching
trough will combine with a strengthening upper level jet streak
rounding the base of the trough to bring a period of deep layer
ascent to our region. Model guidance continues to suggest that a
baroclinic wave will peel off of a system over the central High
Plains and partially phase with the incoming trough, producing
a period of widespread showers across much of the region as the
baroclinic wave enhances frontogenesis and deformation. The
12z/07 guidance suite has universally slowed the timing of all
this by a few hours...and have accordingly made the same
adjustment to continuity. Thunder potential looks to be rather
limited given the paucity of instability currently seen amongst
the guidance...though still cannot completely rule out a few
isolated embedded storms given the quality of the available
forcing. Otherwise...lows will range from the lower 50s across
interior portions of the Southern Tier/North Country to the mid
and upper 50s elsewhere.

This organized area of showers will exit off to our southeast Sunday
morning. Following its passage...multiple additional shortwaves will
then rotate through the mean larger-scale trough across the Great
Lakes/New England through the remainder of Sunday and Sunday night.
Coupled with daytime heating...this will lead to another round of
scattered to numerous showers and a few more thunderstorms Sunday
afternoon and evening. The greatest potential for these will be
found across the North Country where available forcing looks to be
the greatest...with a secondary maxima possible from the Niagara
Frontier into the western Finger Lakes along a developing low level
convergence zone. As we push through Sunday night...the shower
activity will then tend to become more orographically and even lake-
enhanced east and east-southeast of the lakes as a cooling moist
cyclonic upslope flow ushers 850 mb temps of +3C to +5C into our
region. Meanwhile temperatures will run a little below normal...with
highs on Sunday mostly in the mid to upper 60s followed by lows in
the upper 40s to mid 50s Sunday night.

On Monday our region will remain under the influence of deep upper
level troughing...with the main axis of this trough drifting from
western New York at the start of the day to New England by Monday
evening. Moisture/forcing and continued cool air aloft attendant to
the trough will keep some scattered showers going across our
region...with the greatest chances for these again found across the
North Country which will be in closest proximity to the upper low.
Incoming surface-based ridging and drier air will then finally lead
to a return to drier and quieter weather from northwest to southeast
late Monday afternoon through Monday night. Meanwhile temps will
remain on the cool side...with the core of coolest air aloft
crossing our region during the day Monday and only supporting of
highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s...with lows in the mid 40s to
lower 50s then following Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
For the long term period, guidance seems to be trending a bit drier,
especially for the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe. Guidance brings a
sharp ridge and sfc high across the region through Wednesday that
will result in mostly dry conditions across the forecast area.

For Thursday guidance is split between keeping a zonal flow or
bringing the next trough over the region. So will bring slowly
increasing POPs in for Thursday.

Friday looks like the wet day as a mid-level trough and cold front
moves across the area causing showers to move across much of the
region. Some thunderstorms with the daytime heating will also be
possible.

Temperatures for the period start out below normal as the ridge and
sfc high move in from the west. By Wednesday with both features over
and shifting to the east, warm air advection will help temperatures
climb above normal into the mid 70s to near 80 across the area.
Warmer temperatures continue through the rest of the work week with
highs mid 70s to mid 80s for most of the area from the higher
terrain to lower elevations respectively.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Showers will linger east of Lake Ontario through this morning,
especially across the Tug Hill region from a combination of a
departing mid level trough, lake enhancement, and upslope flow.
Expect areas of MVFR CIGS (possibly IFR higher terrain) through the
morning east of Lake Ontario. These showers will end during the
afternoon as drier air arrives.

Elsewhere, VFR will prevail today with mid level clouds this morning
giving way to some partial clearing. It will be breezy today, with
gusts in the 20-30 knot range, strongest over and downwind of
Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.

Another mid level trough will cross the eastern Great Lakes tonight,
bringing a period of widespread rain to the region. The organized
rain will move into Western NY during the late evening, then spread
east overnight. Expect CIGS to lower to MVFR a few hours after the
rain begins, with some IFR possible across higher terrain. Any
pockets of moderate rain will also lower VSBY at times.

Outlook...

Sunday through Monday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers.
Tuesday and Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Westerly winds will continue on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario through
Saturday. Elevated winds will diminish for a time tonight on Lake
Erie will small craft conditions improving after midnight, but
likely returning on Saturday as west-southwest winds increase again.
Elevated winds will remain on Lake Ontario through Saturday will
small craft conditions remaining in place through that time frame.

Winds relax Saturday night, before increasing again Sunday into
early next week. Small Craft Advisories may be needed during this
time.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NYZ004>007.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 11 PM EDT
         this evening for LOZ042-043.
         Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for LOZ044-045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/TMA
NEAR TERM...AR/Hitchcock/TMA
SHORT TERM...Hitchcock/JJR
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...AR/TMA