471
FXUS61 KBUF 121514
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1114 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Notably warmer weather is on the horizon as temperatures will climb
back towards normal today, then reach well above normal on Thursday.
While a cold front will bring chances for showers and put the brakes
on our warm up for Friday and Saturday, mid summer warmth and
humidity is guaranteed for early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A weak mid level shortwave will traverse the region today...and
while this may be enough to allow for a brief shower east of Lake
Ontario...most areas will be able to enjoy a wealth of sunshine
along with a return to typical mid June temperatures. This will
translate into mercury readings returning to the 70s this
afternoon...essentially right where they should be for this point in
the season.

Shortwave ridging will build across the region tonight...and this
will guarantee fair dry weather with moonlit skies giving way to a
bit of cirrus during the wee hours of the morning. It will not be as
cool...particularly over the western counties where mins of 55 to 60
(nr 50 Lewis co) will be some 7-10 deg higher than those of the past
few nights.

Thursday will be noticeably warmer...as sfc based ridging along the
East Coast will circulate H85 temps in the mid teens C across our
forecast area. This will combine with sunshine through high clouds
that will support afternoon temperatures in the low to mid 80s F.
The warm weather will be accompanied by a touch of humidity as well
with many areas experiencing Td`s close to 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The pattern will amplify again across North America Thursday night
and Friday, allowing a mid level trough to dig through Ontario and
Quebec, with the southern edge of the trough crossing the Great
Lakes and New England.

Thursday night through Friday, DPVA and height falls will spread
large scale ascent across the eastern Great Lakes in advance of
the trough. An associated cold front will approach Thursday night,
then cross the area early Friday. Forcing and a narrow axis of
deeper moisture along and ahead of the trough axis will support
a few areas of showers and scattered thunderstorms ahead of the
advancing cold front Thursday night through early Friday. Poor
timing relative to the diurnal cycle and generally weak forcing
will keep the chance of stronger convection low. Rain chances
will end from northwest to southeast through the day Friday as
drier and more stable air arrives behind the cold front.

Surface high pressure will build into the Great Lakes Friday night,
with associated dry air and subsidence allowing for a return to dry
weather and partial clearing. The arrival of a cooler/drier airmass
will allow temperatures to drop back into the low to mid 50s in most
areas, with 40s for some of the Southern Tier valleys and North
Country.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The main story through the long term portion of the forecast will be
building heat and humidity next week.

The brief trough incursion over the Northeast Friday through
Saturday will quickly fade as the longwave pattern across North
America flips. A Pacific trough will move into the western CONUS
early next week, forcing a strong downstream ridge to build across
the central and eastern CONUS. The building ridge, along with
persistent southwest low/mid level flow will pump heat and humidity
into the Ohio Valley and New England starting Monday, and lasting
much of next week.

Relatively cool temperatures Saturday (highs in the upper 60s to
lower 70s) will give way to mid-summer heat by Monday. Highs Monday
through Tuesday will likely reach the lower 90s for lower elevations
away from lake influences as 850MB temps climb to around +20C. The
heat will likely last most of next week given the strength and
breadth of the ridge. A southwest flow will likely keep the Buffalo
area a little cooler most days, with the Rochester area into Central
NY most likely to see numerous days of 90+ degree temperatures.
Dewpoints will move upward into the 65-70 range with time, bringing
a notable heat index by early next week.

The westerlies will remain north and west of the area early next
week, keeping the chances of convection low Monday through Tuesday
with warm temperatures aloft likely providing an effective cap.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions will be in place through the TAF period.

Outlook...

Thursday...VFR. Breezy southwest winds with gusts to 30kts possible
at KIAG and KBUF.
Thursday night and Friday...VFR/MVFR. Showers and thunderstorms
likely.
Friday night through Sunday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will build across the Lower Great Lakes resulting in
light winds which will last through tonight.

A cold front will then move across the Lower Great Lakes late
Thursday night and early Friday. Southwest winds will increase ahead
of the front Thursday, with winds remaining elevated through Friday.
This will bring choppy conditions to both lakes. High pressure will
then build back across the waters with light winds and generally
favorable boating conditions during the weekend.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...Hitchcock
LONG TERM...Hitchcock
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...Apffel/PP