313
FXUS61 KBUF 230657
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
257 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the area through the early morning bringing
another round of showers and a few thunderstorms. Cooler more
comfortable weather can be expected today into the first part of the
Memorial Day weekend. Showers return for Saturday and then again
later Sunday into the middle of the new work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
There will be a few showers and thunderstorms out ahead of the
cold front, but most of the activity will be along or immediately
ahead of the approaching boundary. Instability continues to slowly
lower out ahead of the front with the lack of diurnal heating, but
there`s still around 500-1000 J/Kg from the Genesee Valley eastward.

Showers and thunderstorms will gradually exit to our east through
daybreak with some showers lingering into the first half of the
morning, mainly for areas east of Lake Ontario. It will become
mostly sunny through the day as clouds will decrease from northwest
to southeast as drier air moves into the region behind the departing
cold front. A cooler, but still above normal day today with
afternoon highs mainly in the upper 60s to near 80 from the higher
terrain to the lower elevations respectively.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Quiet weather expected tonight as a ridge approaches with the
region remaining in between synoptic systems on the north and
southeast sides. Lows tonight will dip down to the low to mid
50s across the entire area. Dry conditions continue Friday as
the ridge axis continue to slowly build over the region.
Temperatures will range from near 70 over the higher terrain
east of Lake Ontario to the upper 70s and lower 80s for the
lower elevations south of Lake Ontario.

Friday night, the ridge will continue to slowly approach and cross
the region. Behind the passing ridge, a warm front approaching from
the Ohio Valley will start to increase the potential for showers
during the second half of the night. There is some timing
uncertainty among guidance with the speed of the ridge crossing the
region. Some models have the ridge moving through slower and showers
not moving in until later in the day on Saturday, while other
forecast guidance is a bit quicker with the showers moving into
western New York a few hours before daybreak.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
There will be a pattern shift into next week as an upper level
trough deepens across the eastern Great Lakes region. This will
bring a period of unsettled weather including the chance for showers
and thunderstorms and cooler weather towards mid-week.

Surface high pressure will lead to dry weather across the forecast
area Sunday. A warm front will approach the region Sunday night and
showers with the chance for thunderstorms will move into the region.
An area of low pressure is forecast to track northwest of the
forecast area Monday through Monday night. The best chance for rain
will be Monday through Monday night as a cold front moves across the
region. There is a risk of a few strong storms Monday, however
confidence is low due to high uncertainty in evolution of this
system. Confidence is higher that cooler air will move into the
region for Tuesday and Wednesday. It will feel much cooler due to
the recent warm stretch, however temperatures will be only a few
degrees below normal.

There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and
Wednesday due to an upper low nearby. The best chance will be in the
afternoon through early evening.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Another round of showers and a few thunderstorms will move through
with the cold front through daybreak, then fair and dry weather for
the rest of the day today. Best chance for thunderstorms will be
across the north country early this morning, but should remain away
from KART. Localized MVFR conditions in showers and a few
thunderstorms possible this morning out ahead of and with the cold
frontal passage. Widespread VFR flight conditions expected today.

Outlook...
Tonight and Friday...Mainly VFR.
Saturday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Sunday...Mainly VFR
Monday...MVFR/VFR with showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
A few showers and thunderstorms, mainly over Lake Ontario this
morning will cause some gusty winds through the early morning.
Southwest winds early this morning will shift to the west as a cold
front crosses the region. High pressure will build into the region
today through Friday, providing a gentle breeze. Winds will
generally remain at a gentle breeze or lighter through most of the
weekend as a shortwave trough crosses the area on Saturday and high
pressure moves back into the region on Sunday. There could be some
brief stronger convective related gusts on Saturday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/Apffel/SW/TMA
NEAR TERM...Apffel/SW/TMA
SHORT TERM...SW/TMA
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...Apffel/SW
MARINE...SW