Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
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600 FXUS61 KBUF 081433 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1033 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 .SYNOPSIS... There will be a few showers east of Lake Ontario today, but most of Western NY will have dry weather with some partial sunshine today. Another trough will then cross the region tonight with a period of rain overnight. Unsettled weather will continue Sunday through Monday with a few showers and cool temperatures before drier and warmer weather returns by the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Today, a mid level trough will continue to move east across New England. This trough will support some lingering showers east of Lake Ontario and in the St Lawrence Valley. Limited instability will develop in the St Lawrence Valley where a few afternoon thunderstorms can`t be ruled out. However height rises, subsidence, and drying will cause most of the showers east of Lake Ontario to taper off by this afternoon. Meanwhile across Western NY, a period of mainly dry weather will continue today with a partial clearing which will last through mid afternoon before clouds begin to increase again ahead of the next system. Highs will reach the lower 70s across the lower elevations of Western NY, with 60s for higher terrain and east of Lake Ontario. It will be quite breezy today, with gusts in the 25-35 mph range. Tonight, the next seasonably strong mid level trough will dig from northwest Ontario to southern Quebec. DPVA and height falls will spread east across the Great Lakes bringing an increase in large scale ascent. An upper level jet streak on the southern flank of the trough will strengthen overnight, with a commensurate increase in upper level divergence as the left exit region and associated thermally indirect ageostrophic circulation of the jet crosses the eastern Great Lakes overnight. Meanwhile, a baroclinic wave in the lower troposphere will organize as it crosses the eastern Great Lakes overnight, increasing frontogenesis and deformation in the lower levels. Given the quality of moisture and dynamics coming together, expect an area of organized rain to cross the region from west to east from late evening through the overnight hours, with rainfall amounts on the order of 0.25"-0.50" across much of the area. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Unsettled weather will continue as a strong upper level low moves across southern Quebec Sunday. A shortwave trough will be moving overhead Sunday morning. Numerous showers will extend from the North Country to the western Southern Tier before moving east of the region by Sunday afternoon. A cold pool remains across the forecast area and daytime heating will result in steepening lapse rates through Sunday afternoon. While one shortwave trough exits to the east, another will approach the region from the west. Similar to Friday, showers will develop across the region with a convergence zone setting up across the Niagara Frontier to the Rochester Metro. This will promote stronger low-level forcing and heavy downpours. Thunder can`t be ruled out during the afternoon. Highs will reach the upper 60s to low 70s. The revolving door of shortwave troughs will continue Sunday night through Monday. The loss of daytime heating will lessen the coverage of showers Sunday evening, however another shot of cool air will filter into the region with 850mb temperatures falling to +5C. Lake enhanced showers will be possible southeast of the Lakes overnight. Lows will reach the upper 40s to mid 50s. A shortwave trough is expected to be overhead Monday morning and exit to the east by Monday afternoon. Drier air and increasing subsidence will move into the region with showers possible across north central NY and southeast portions of western NY. Drier weather is expected Monday night. Lows will fall to the upper 40s to low 50s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... There will be a reprieve in the unsettled weather as we move into the middle and end of the work week. A large area of high pressure over the Central Plains Tuesday will build into the Great Lakes region. Model guidance wavers with speed to which the exiting upper level trough over the Northeast will move out to sea. This should still promote mostly dry weather but if it lags then an isolated shower can`t be ruled out Tuesday afternoon. An upper level ridge will move overhead Wednesday before flattening out Thursday through Friday. A shortwave trough may move across the Great Lakes region and bring showers Friday. Temperatures will begin below normal Tuesday before going above normal Wednesday through Friday. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Lingering showers and MVFR cigs east of Lake Ontario will improve this afternoon. Otherwise, VFR flight conditions for our TAF sites. It will be breezy today, with gusts in the 20-30 knot range, strongest over and downwind of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Another mid level trough will cross the eastern Great Lakes tonight, bringing a period of widespread rain to the region. The organized rain will move into Western NY during the late evening, then spread east overnight. Expect CIGS to lower to MVFR a few hours after the rain begins, with some IFR possible across higher terrain. Any pockets of moderate rain will also lower VSBY at times. Outlook... Sunday through Monday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers. Tuesday and Wednesday...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... Moderate westerlies will continue to support solid Small Craft Advisory conditions on Lake Ontario and Lake Erie today through this evening. Winds will temporarily back off tonight, then ramp up again Sunday with another round of Small Craft Advisory conditions on both lakes. Winds will come down some Sunday night through Monday, but will still be strong enough to produce choppy conditions on both lakes. More favorable winds and waves for boating will return by the middle of next week. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ001>003-010-019-085. Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NYZ004. Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for NYZ005>007. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020- 040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LOZ042-043. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for LOZ044-045. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock NEAR TERM...Apffel/Hitchcock SHORT TERM...HSK LONG TERM...HSK AVIATION...Hitchcock MARINE...Apffel/Hitchcock