637
FXUS61 KBUF 081031
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
631 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers will continue east of Lake Ontario today, especially across
higher terrain. Meanwhile, Western NY will see a brief break of dry
weather with some partial sunshine today. Another trough will then
cross the region tonight with a period of rain overnight. Unsettled
weather will continue Sunday through Monday with a few showers and
cool temperatures before drier and warmer weather returns by the
middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Radar imagery showing an area of showers east of Lake Ontario this
morning, with dry weather prevailing across the rest of the area.
Clouds still dominate from the Genesee Valley eastward, but skies
have cleared across much of Western NY.

Today, a mid level trough will continue to move east across New
England. Deep moisture and lingering forcing from the trough will
continue east of Lake Ontario this morning before height rises,
subsidence, and drying move eastward across the eastern Great Lakes
midday into the afternoon. The ongoing synoptic scale forcing and
moisture will combine with upslope flow and even some lake
enhancement to allow showers to continue east of Lake Ontario this
morning, most persistent across the higher terrain of the Tug Hill
Plateau and western Adirondacks. These showers will gradually taper
off through the afternoon.

Meanwhile across Western NY, a period of mainly dry weather will
continue today with morning clouds giving way to some partial
clearing late morning through mid afternoon before clouds begin to
increase again ahead of the next system. Highs will reach the lower
70s across the lower elevations of Western NY, with 60s for higher
terrain and east of Lake Ontario. It will be quite breezy today,
with gusts in the 25-35 mph range.

Tonight, the next seasonably strong mid level trough will dig from
northwest Ontario to southern Quebec. DPVA and height falls will
spread east across the Great Lakes bringing an increase in large
scale ascent. An upper level jet streak on the southern flank of the
trough will strengthen overnight, with a commensurate increase in
upper level divergence as the left exit region and associated
thermally indirect ageostrophic circulation of the jet crosses the
eastern Great Lakes overnight. Meanwhile, a baroclinic wave in the
lower troposphere will organize as it crosses the eastern Great
Lakes overnight, increasing frontogenesis and deformation in the
lower levels. Given the quality of moisture and dynamics coming
together, expect an area of organized rain to cross the region from
west to east from late evening through the overnight hours, with
rainfall amounts on the order of 0.25"-0.50" across much of the
area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Unsettled weather will continue as a strong upper level low moves
across southern Quebec Sunday. A shortwave trough will be moving
overhead Sunday morning. Numerous showers will extend from the North
Country to the western Southern Tier before moving east of the
region by Sunday afternoon. A cold pool remains across the forecast
area and daytime heating will result in steepening lapse rates
through Sunday afternoon. While one shortwave trough exits to the
east, another will approach the region from the west. Similar to
Friday, showers will develop across the region with a convergence
zone setting up across the Niagara Frontier to the Rochester Metro.
This will promote stronger low-level forcing and heavy downpours.
Thunder can`t be ruled out during the afternoon. Highs will reach
the upper 60s to low 70s.

The revolving door of shortwave troughs will continue Sunday night
through Monday. The loss of daytime heating will lessen the coverage
of showers Sunday evening, however another shot of cool air will
filter into the region with 850mb temperatures falling to +5C. Lake
enhanced showers will be possible southeast of the Lakes overnight.
Lows will reach the upper 40s to mid 50s. A shortwave trough is
expected to be overhead Monday morning and exit to the east by
Monday afternoon. Drier air and increasing subsidence will move into
the region with showers possible across north central NY and
southeast portions of western NY. Drier weather is expected Monday
night. Lows will fall to the upper 40s to low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
There will be a reprieve in the unsettled weather as we move into
the middle and end of the work week. A large area of high pressure
over the Central Plains Tuesday will build into the Great Lakes
region. Model guidance wavers with speed to which the exiting upper
level trough over the Northeast will move out to sea. This should
still promote mostly dry weather but if it lags then an isolated
shower can`t be ruled out Tuesday afternoon. An upper level ridge
will move overhead Wednesday before flattening out Thursday through
Friday. A shortwave trough may move across the Great Lakes region
and bring showers Friday.

Temperatures will begin below normal Tuesday before going above
normal Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Showers will linger east of Lake Ontario through this morning,
especially across the Tug Hill region from a combination of a
departing mid level trough, lake enhancement, and upslope flow.
Expect areas of MVFR CIGS (possibly IFR higher terrain) through the
morning east of Lake Ontario. These showers will end during the
afternoon as drier air arrives. Farther west, some MVFR CIGS will
continue across the Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes for a few hours
this morning before scattering out by late morning.

Otherwise, VFR will prevail today with mid level clouds this morning
giving way to some partial clearing. It will be breezy today, with
gusts in the 20-30 knot range, strongest over and downwind of Lake
Erie and Lake Ontario.

Another mid level trough will cross the eastern Great Lakes tonight,
bringing a period of widespread rain to the region. The organized
rain will move into Western NY during the late evening, then spread
east overnight. Expect CIGS to lower to MVFR a few hours after the
rain begins, with some IFR possible across higher terrain. Any
pockets of moderate rain will also lower VSBY at times.

Outlook...

Sunday through Monday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers.
Tuesday and Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate westerlies will continue to support solid Small Craft
Advisory conditions on Lake Ontario and Lake Erie today through this
evening. Winds will temporarily back off tonight, then ramp up again
Sunday with another round of Small Craft Advisory conditions on both
lakes.

Winds will come down some Sunday night through Monday, but will
still be strong enough to produce choppy conditions on both lakes.
More favorable winds and waves for boating will return by the middle
of next week.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NYZ001>003.
     Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NYZ004.
     Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for NYZ005>007.
     Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NYZ010-019-
     085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020-
         040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
         LOZ042-043.
         Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for LOZ044-045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock