196
FXUS61 KBUF 011754
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
154 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather will continue through tonight as high pressure across
the region drifts to the east coast. Weakening low pressure will
move into the Ohio Valley Sunday, bringing a chance of a showers and
a few thunderstorms. Dry and warm weather will follow for early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Quiet weather will continue through tonight as a mid level ridge
across the region drifts to the east. High clouds will gradually
increase from the west, limiting radiational cooling, bringing
a milder night with overnight lows ranging from the lower 50s to
lower 60s.

A weakening shortwave trough will advance into the region Sunday
bringing the chance for some showers. The showers will likely remain
rather spotty during the morning, as lingering dry air will need
to be overcome. Coverage should increase during the afternoon,
but certainly will not be a wash out by any means as most
guidance keeps the shower activity fairly scattered. Some meager
afternoon surface based instability develops, so an isolated
thunderstorm can not be completely ruled out. Clouds will limit
daytime warming some, with highs mainly in the 70s, except near
80 east of Lake Ontario which could benefit from a bit more
morning sunshine.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Behind a shortwave trough showers will be exiting east and
southeastward from our region Sunday night. Some patchy fog possible
with a low dewpoint depression and light winds.

Light flow over the region Monday with broad and very weak surface
high pressure nearby. Monday should be dry, but a spot shower along
any forming lake breeze boundary cannot be ruled out. It will be a
bit warmer Monday with partly to mostly sunny skies aiding in
afternoon temperatures reaching the upper 70s and lower 80s. Lows

Monday night will drop back into the mid 50s, to lower 60s...with a
light southeasterly flow behind the departing weak surface high
limiting fog potential.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Broad mid and upper-level ridging extending from the southeastern
states to New England at the start of this period will gradually
give way to a negatively-tilted upper trough digging southeastward
across the Great Lakes Wednesday into Thursday...with this trough
then likely to cut off into a closed low that will take up residence
across our region Friday and Saturday. While the medium range
guidance packages unsurprisingly continue to struggle with the
details of this transition this far out...this will generally result
in our weather becoming much more unsettled as we push through the
middle and latter portions of the week...with initially above normal
temperatures also settling back to near to slightly below average by
Friday and Saturday.

Digging a little deeper into the forecast details...on Wednesday the
front flank of the approaching trough will start to approach far
western New York as we push through the course of the day. Combined
with daytime heating of our moderately humid airmass...this should
allow for the development of some scattered showers and thunder-
storms...with the greatest chances for these found from the Genesee
Valley westward. Further east pcpn chances should diminish with
increasing eastward extent... with it quite possible that the North
Country could remain mainly dry. Otherwise notably above normal
temperatures will continue for one more day...with highs ranging
from the mid-upper 70s across the higher terrain to the lower to mid
80s across the lower elevations.

Wednesday night and Thursday the elongating upper trough will
continue to expand its way southeastward across the Great Lakes...
with its attendant surface low over Northern Ontario likely pushing
a weakening warm frontal segment across our area Wednesday night...
followed by a prefrontal trough and trailing cold front between
Thursday and Thursday evening. Consequently...pcpn potential looks
to increase to the likely range (and likely the greatest levels of
the period) later Wednesday night and Thursday in concert with the
approach/passage of the above boundaries. Meanwhile a warm and humid
Wednesday night will be followed by high temps pulling back some to
the mid and upper 70s on Thursday due to the expected increase in
cloud and precipitation coverage.

Following the passage of this system`s cold front...notably cooler
and less humid air attendant to the upper low will then overspread
our region through the remainder of the week. This will result in
daytime highs pulling back into the mid 60s to lower 70s for both
Friday and Saturday...and nightly lows also settling back into the
lower to mid 50s. Meanwhile the presence of the upper level low/cool
pool aloft will support the potential for additional scattered
showers and storms Friday and Saturday...with chances for these
generally peaking each afternoon with daytime heating/increased
diurnally-driven instability.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High confidence in VFR prevailing through at least 12Z Sunday, with
high pressure and a mid-level ridge maintaining rain-free weather.
High clouds will increase through tonight.

The approach of a weakening shortwave trough will bring some
scattered showers Sunday, mainly after 16z. Cigs across western
New York will lower to near 6K feet by 18z Sunday, with cigs
possibly lowering to MVFR by late Sunday afternoon.

Outlook...

Monday and Tuesday...VFR.
Wednesday...Mainly VFR with a chance for showers.
Thursday...Restrictions likely with showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Quiet weather the rest of this weekend into early next week
with no marine headlines expected. A weak low moves northeast
from the Ohio Valley to just south of the lower Great Lakes late
tonight through Sunday with a chance of a few showers and
isolated thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the
region Sunday night through Monday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Apffel/Hitchcock/TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...Apffel/Hitchcock/TMA