681
FXUS61 KBUF 311807
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
207 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather will continue through Saturday as high pressure across
the region drifts to the east coast. Weakening low pressure will
move into the Ohio Valley late Saturday night and Sunday, bringing a
chance of a showers and a few thunderstorms, especially across
Western New York. Dry and warmer weather follows for Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mid level ridge will slowly crest over the region through Saturday
as surface high pressure drifts to the east coast. This will
maintain fair weather across the region through Saturday. There
will be an increase in high clouds by late Saturday afternoon
ahead of an approaching shortwave trough.

Good radiational cooling conditions expected tonight, but the
air mass will be a touch milder than last night, limiting
coverage potential of frost. Some patchy frost is still possible
in the coldest valleys of the Southern Tier and the coldest
spots of Lewis county. Overnight lows ranging from the upper 30s
in the coldest spots of the western Southern Tier and Lewis
county with 40s elsewhere. Modest warm advection and sunshine
should boost temperatures Saturday several degrees warmer than
Friday`s readings with most highs in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Increase in clouds from the west Saturday night ahead of a
shortwave trough. Greatest lift and deeper moisture will lie
across southern zones, while thinner moisture profiles and
farther away from the shortwave will lead to just low chance
PoPs for the North Country. Instability is marginal, with just a
general risk for a few thunderstorms.

This now weakening shortwave and its associated showers will exit
our region Sunday night. Could be some fog developing in areas where
it rained earlier Sunday. Thicker clouds and slightly cooler airmass
at 850 hPa will make Sunday a good 5 degrees cooler than Saturday
for WNY, while similar highs are expected both days east of Lake
Ontario (where some sunshine is possible Sunday).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A mid level ridge of high pressure will nose its way across the
eastern Great Lakes region Monday through Wednesday. This will pave
the way for a dry day Monday with still comfortable levels of
humidity. By Tuesday and Wednesday humidity will increase some, and
some weakening to this ridge may allow for a few showers and
thunderstorms to blossom...mainly in the afternoon hours. Coverage
of storms Wednesday could be a little more with additional moisture
advection.

The next shortwave trough arrives Thursday with likely showers and
thunderstorms.

Temperatures will average above normal, especially on Tuesday and
Wednesday with low to mid 80s widespread ahead of the next shortwave
trough.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure drifting across the region providing high
confidence in VFR flight conditions through Saturday. High
clouds will begin to filter in from the west Saturday.

Outlook...

Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms, particularly across Western NY.
Monday...Mainly VFR with a slight chance for a shower across the
Southern Tier.
Tuesday and Wednesday...Mainly VFR with a chance for showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Westerly winds to around 15 knots on Lake Ontario will produce a
moderate chop on the lake into this evening.

Relatively quiet weather this weekend into early next week with no
marine headlines expected. A weak low moves northeast from the Ohio
Valley to just south of the lower Great Lakes Saturday night through
Sunday with high pressure building in Sunday night through Monday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Apffel/Hitchcock/TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA