Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
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008 FXUS61 KBUF 281508 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1108 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Cloudy and cool today with widespread showers this afternoon and a chance of a thunderstorm. Showers decrease in coverage beginning tonight through Wednesday, with dry weather returning Thursday into the weekend. We can also expect a day to day warming trend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Just a spattering of showers across the eastern Great Lakes as of right now (15Z). That will change...a robust shortwave rotating through the base of a longwave trough will crosses our forecast area bringing widespread showers this afternoon. Elevated CAPE of 100-200 j/kg could even allow for a thunderstorm or two. Cooler today too...with H850T`s around +6 to +7 this will support highs only in the 60s. The shortwave responsible for the showers will exit tonight. With dwindling support shower activity will wind down. We will remain overcast though with temperatures settling into the low to mid 50s. While the base of the longwave trough will remain centered over our region on Wednesday...shortwaves moving through the deep cyclonic flow should largely track by to our south. A weak secondary cold front will stall across Pennsylvania at that time as well...so the only organized shower activity for our area will be over the western Southern Tier. Otherwise...partial clearing will be found further to the north...particularly east of Lake Ontario. Unfortunately...high temperatures will once again only in the 60s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Behind a cold front, a cooler airmass will settle over our region, accompanied by surface high pressure slowly building in from the west. Light northerly flow ahead of this surface high, combined with mostly clear skies for the nights of Wednesday through Friday will produce overnight lows in the 40s. Would not be surprised to see a sub 40 reading in one of the coldest valleys of the inland Southern Tier or east of Lake Ontario. Closer to the mild Great Lakes overnight lows will not be as chilly. While surface high pressure will be building in at the surface, a mid level trough will drop across the region from Canada on Thursday. Dry air will make any shower formation tough, with perhaps an isolated shower east of Lake Ontario. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Surface high pressure starting over our region the first day of June will bring light winds, and a sunny, but cool start to the day. The next mid level trough will reach our region Saturday night and Sunday. Moisture is not impressive with this feature, and will carry just slight chance to low chance PoPs for a shower or thunderstorm. Brief ridging behind this feature may keep Monday dry before yet another trough bears down upon the region later Monday and Tuesday. Behind the surface high temperatures will return back to above normal levels. && .AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A wealth of low level moisture circulating around a deep storm over Quebec will bring a mixture of low end VFR to MVFR CIGS. There will also be some IFR with the heavier showers...and even an isolated thunderstorm or two this afternoon. Tonight...northerly flow will produce a mixture of MVFR to IFR CIGS. There will also be some shower but coverage should decrease as we progress through the night. Outlook... Wednesday...MVFR with a chance of showers. Thursday through Saturday...VFR. && .MARINE... Moderate to fresh southwesterlies will continue to support small craft advisories today for all of the nearshore waters. A weakening pressure gradient will then produce moderate north to northwest breezes tonight and Wednesday. && .HYDROLOGY... Mesonet obs at Woodgate confirm radar estimates with around 4 inches of rain measured Monday from a couple rounds of storms. This is just south of our forecast area, but it is in the Black River basin and will flow to the Boonville gauge. Basin averages are less than that, but coordinated with the NERFC and expect a basin average of around 3 inches to push the Boonville gauge to above action stage today. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...Beach Hazards Statement until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ005-006. Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ010- 019-085. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ040- 041. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LOZ042>045. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...AR/RSH SHORT TERM...Thomas LONG TERM...Thomas AVIATION...AR MARINE...AR/RSH HYDROLOGY...Apffel