517
FXUS61 KBUF 191750
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
150 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered over eastern Quebec will extend southeastward
across the Lower Great Lakes through Friday night. While this will
continue to favor fair warm weather...a mid level disturbance may
generate some showers over the western counties on Saturday. Looking
further down the road...cooler and more widespread unsettled weather
will finally return to the region for much of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
While there will be a couple stray light showers across Chautauqua
county this afternoon...high pressure centered over eastern Quebec
will extend to the southeast across our region through Friday night.
This will all but guarantee continued fair warm weather...as daytime
max temps will continue to average within a degree or two of 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A somewhat robust mid level shortwave will track southeast from
the Upper Great Lakes during the day Saturday. This `new`
feature in the guidance will likely encourage some showers to
develop...mainly over the western counties south of Buffalo and
Rochester. Pops have been raised to chc-low likely for the
western counties. The diurnally enhanced convection from this
feature will die off Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Surface high pressure will continue to extend south across the area
Sunday, maintaining dry warm weather across the forecast area. The
pattern will then become more amplified early next week across the
Great Lakes region as a trough digs into the Midwest with moisture
being advected northward from the Gulf of Mexico. Ensemble means
continue to support showers to move into the region Monday and
linger through Wednesday.

Otherwise, temperatures will gradually cool late this weekend
through the start of next week. Despite the cooling trend,
temperatures will continue to remain above average.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions with light winds will persist through Friday. As has
been the case for the past week or so...the exception to this will
be across the western Southern Tier where early morning valley fog
will support MVFR to IFR vsbys for a few hours at sites like KJHW
and KELZ. There will also be some early morning fog on Friday at
KART.

Outlook...

Saturday...Mainly VFR. Scattered showers over the western counties.
Sunday...VFR, except for patchy early morning fog across the
Southern Tier and east of Lake Ontario.
Monday...Mainly VFR. Chance of showers over the western counties.
Tuesday...VFR to MVFR with scattered showers.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will remain in control through the end of the week
with light winds and minimal wave action. Winds will tend to be
northeast much of the time.

The northeast winds will strengthen some over the weekend,
especially on Lake Ontario where a moderate chop will develop at
times.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...EAJ/RSH
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...Hitchcock