664
FXUS61 KBUF 171751
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
151 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
While high level clouds will continue to circulate northwards across
our region through Wednesday...high pressure will nearly guarantee that
fair dry weather will persist for the foreseeable future. Daytime
temperatures will continue to climb through the 70s each day...with
many areas achieving levels in the lower 80s. Fortunately the overnight
lows will remain at very comfortable levels in the 50s.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Our cirrus cloud cover will remain in place tonight and actually
thicken somewhat...as high pressure anchored off the New England coast
will reach back across our forecast area. The cloud cover will be
unfortunate in that there will be a underwhelming partial lunar eclipse
of a Harvest Super moon. Just 8 percent of the top of the full moon
will become dark...with the eclipse lasting from 10:13 to 12:47 AM. The
peak coverage will be around 10:44. Otherwise...the weather promises to
be uneventful with just the high clouds and mins in the 50s.

While protective high pressure will continue to extend back across our
region from the Canadian maritimes Wednesday and Wednesday night...a
large upper level storm system centered over the southern Appalachians
will further weaken and drift north off the Mid Atlantic coast. This
will keep a fair amount of high level clouds over our region...but
otherwise continued nice late summer weather will persist. Temperatures
on Wednesday will once again reach into the upper 70s to lower 80s for
the vast majority of the region. These temperatures are more typical
for July or early August.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Model consensus continues to trend even drier for the latter portion
of the work week...as high pressure looks to remain in control
across the lower Great Lakes. So much drier in fact that we are
no longer expecting much of anything in the way of shower activity
in the short term period for our area. Deeper moisture associated
with a weakening area of low pressure that will be shunted
southeast of our region as the low slowly drifts northeast along
the Atlantic coast.

By Thursday, the low will be located south of the southern New
England coast. While this may bring some showers to southeastern
New York and southern New England, northward progression of the
system will all but cease as surface high pressure remains
anchored across northern New England southwestward through much
of New York State. This high will keep dry conditions in place
across western and northcentral NY through Thursday night,
although some mid and upper level cloud cover will be present at
times.

Daytime temperatures will remain at least some 10 degrees or so
above average through the period with highs both days mainly in the
upper 70s to around 80, with mid 70s across the higher terrain.
Despite the warm daytime temperatures, longer September nights and
comfortable humidity levels will allow the fairly large diurnal
range in temps to continue with lows mainly ranging through the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure will continue to dominate our weather across western
and northcentral NY with mainly dry weather expected right through
the upcoming weekend. That said, there will be weak backdoor cold
front that will slowly approach our area on Friday from the
northeast as high pressure builds back across the region from east-
central Quebec southwest into New England. This boundary may
possibly then possibly stall or slowly crawl from northeast to
southwest across the area through the first half of the weekend,
before the high finally builds a bit further southwest shoving the
cold front to our west by Sunday. The main impact of this boundary
will be a slow cooling of our surface temps with highs falling from
the upper 70s to near 80 Friday and Saturday, to the upper 60s and
low 70s by Monday, which is still a bit above normal for this time
of year. Of no surprise the boundary is moisture-starved, so will
keep PoPs below SChc at this point. Looking toward the tail end of
the period, some of the medium range guidance is now showing the
ridge finally breaking down sometime early next week, with the next
chance for some precipitation possibly moving in as early as late
Monday or Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions and light winds will be in place through the TAF period.
The exception will be between 08 and 12z tonight when there will be
some valley fog to contend with across the Srn Tier and very locally
over some of the airfields of that area (ie. KJHW and KELZ.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Sunday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern over the
eastern Great Lakes through the rest of the week, as weak low
pressure meanders along the east coast. The layout of the weak
pressure pattern over the eastern US and southeast Canada will
continue to promote mainly weak east/northeast flow on Lake Erie
and Lake Ontario for the rest of the week, with sustained winds
under 10 knots most of the time.

+&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...Hitchcock/TMA