812
FXUS61 KBUF 161800
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
200 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure anchored off the coast of New England will extend back
across the Lower Great Lakes through Tuesday night...and this will
maintain fair warm weather throughout our region. The only
difference from the past several days will be a thickening blanket
of cirrus that will push northward from the weak tropical system in
the vicinity of South Carolina. While a brief light shower cannot be
ruled out for parts of the Southern Tier on Wednesday...high
pressure will build back in to provide fair warm weather for the
remainder of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Fair warm weather will persist throughout the region during this
period...as stacked high pressure centered off the New England coast
will generally remain in place. There will be a thickening cirrus
shield that will advect northward across our area in the process
though...as a weak tropical system off the coast of South Carolina
will move inland and stall over the southern Appalachians.

Will continue to aim high on daytime temperatures...partly due to
the increasingly dry antecedent conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The latest guidance has deviated some from previous runs, keeping
the ridge closer to the area and holding the inland movement of
the closed low father to the south. This will limit the northward
spread of moisture into the region. Both the deterministic and
ensemble runs of the ECMWF and GFS are showing this trend, which
suggest that western and north central New York may remain dry
through the period. At this point, will not completely remove
rain chances Wednesday through Wednesday night time frame, but
will trend the forecast toward lower rain probabilities with
Wednesday afternoon and night having the best chance to see at
least a few showers possibly sneaking into the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An upper level low over the Mid-Atlantic region will merge with a
trough over the Northeast region Thursday through Friday. An
anomalously strong ridge over the Mississippi Valley will move into
Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region, replacing the trough as it exits
to the east.

Moisture will be somewhat pooled under a weakening upper level low
across the Mid-Atlantic region into New York State Thursday. Surface
high pressure will be centered near the Upper Great Lakes and extend
into western and north central NY. Daytime heating and dewpoints in
the 60s may result in the development of showers and a few
thunderstorms Thursday afternoon through evening. Due to no obvious
lifting mechanisms nearby, coverage looks scattered. Subsidence
builds into the region Friday which will be mostly dry, however
isolated to scattered showers remain possible inland from the lakes.
A 585dm ridge will move into the region Saturday and Sunday, with
medium to high confidence of another warm and dry weekend.

Above normal temperatures will continue Wednesday through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions with light winds can be expected through the TAF
period. The exception could be some valley fog across the western
Southern Tier late tonight...but given the addition of a fair amount
of cirrus...any fog will be less widespread/concentrated.

Outlook...

Tuesday night through Thursday...Mainly VFR. A low chance of showers.
Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern over the
eastern Great Lakes early this week, with light winds and minimal
wave action. Light synoptic scale winds will again allow local lake
breeze circulations to develop this afternoon with onshore winds of
5-10 knots in most areas.

The pressure gradient will tighten a bit by Tuesday as a low
pressure system slowly drifts northward from the Mid-Atlantic
states. This will lead to a prevailing light to moderate east-
northeasterly breeze on the lakes, which could result in a minor
chop on the western end of Lake Ontario at times. This low pressure
system could also bring a few showers to the lakes Tuesday night
through Wednesday night.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...Hitchcock/PP