205
FXUS61 KBUF 280840
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
440 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An usually deep storm for this time of year over Quebec will
circulate cool air across our region through Thursday. The below
normal temperatures will be accompanied by widespread today into
tonight with notable less coverage in showers on Wednesday. Day to
day warming can then be expected for the end of the week and through
the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Scattered showers from the overnight will become fairly widespread
today...as a robust shortwave (well defined over srn Lake Michigan
at 08z) will rotate through the base of a longwave trough and cross
our forecast area during the afternoon. Have bumped pops to high
likely-categorical with the afternoon being quite unsettled.
Elevated CAPE of 100-200 j/kg could even allow for a thunderstorm or
two. Temperatures for this upcoming day will largely be in the 60s.

As the aforementioned shortwave exits to our east tonight...the
associated shower activity will gradually wind down. We will remain
overcast though with temperatures settling into the low to mid 50s.

While the base of the longwave trough will remain centered over our
region on Wednesday...shortwaves moving through the deep cyclonic
flow should largely track by to our south. A weak secondary cold
front will stall across Pennsylvania at that time as well...so the
only organized shower activity for our area will be over the western
Southern Tier. Otherwise...partial clearing will be found further to
the north...particularly east of Lake Ontario. Unfortunately...high
temperatures will once again only in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Behind a cold front, a cooler airmass will settle over our region,
accompanied by surface high pressure slowly building in from the
west. Light northerly flow ahead of this surface high, combined with
mostly clear skies for the nights of Wednesday through Friday will
produce overnight lows in the 40s. Would not be surprised to see a
sub 40 reading in one of the coldest valleys of the inland Southern
Tier or east of Lake Ontario. Closer to the mild Great Lakes
overnight lows will not be as chilly.

While surface high pressure will be building in at the surface, a
mid level trough will drop across the region from Canada on
Thursday. Dry air will make any shower formation tough, with perhaps
an isolated shower east of Lake Ontario.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Surface high pressure starting over our region the first day of June
will bring light winds, and a sunny, but cool start to the day. The
next mid level trough will reach our region Saturday night and
Sunday. Moisture is not impressive with this feature, and will carry
just slight chance to low chance PoPs for a shower or thunderstorm.
Brief ridging behind this feature may keep Monday dry before yet
another trough bears down upon the region later Monday and Tuesday.
Behind the surface high temperatures will return back to above
normal levels.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A wealth of low level moisture circulating around a deep storm over
Quebec will continue to support mainly MVFR cigs for the region
today. The exception will be across the western Southern Tier and
parts of the IAG Frontier (ie. KBUF) where IFR to LIFR cigs will be
in place for at least a portion of the morning.

These cigs will be accompanied by an increasing likelihood for
showers...and even an isolated thunderstorm or two for the
afternoon.

MVFR cigs will be common throughout the region for at least the
first half of tonight.

Outlook...

Wednesday...VFR to MVFR cigs with a chance of showers.
Thursday through Saturday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate to fresh southwesterlies will continue to support small
craft advisories today for all of the nearshore waters.

A weakening pressure gradient will then produce moderate north to
northwest breezes tonight and Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Mesonet obs at Woodgate confirm radar estimates with around 4
inches of rain measured Monday from a couple rounds of storms.
This is just south of our forecast area, but it is in the Black
River basin and will flow to the Boonville gauge. Basin averages
are less than that, but coordinated with the NERFC and expect a
basin average of around 3 inches to push the Boonville gauge to
above action stage today.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NYZ005-006.
     Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NYZ010-019-
     085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
         LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH
HYDROLOGY...Apffel