385
FXUS61 KBUF 191437
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1037 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain firmly anchored over the eastern Great
Lakes through the weekend, maintaining dry and warm weather. The
center of the high will begin to move off the east coast by early
next week, allowing low pressure to approach from the west. This
will bring increasing chances of rain and cooler temperatures by the
early to middle part of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure surface and aloft will remain in control over the
eastern Great Lakes through the end of the week, with more dry and
tranquil weather on the way. A weak mid level circulation embedded
within the ridge, which is responsible for the enhanced mid/high
clouds over the area, will gradually fade away today. Increasing
subsidence and dry air in the mid levels will allow the cloud cover
to erode, with increasing amounts of sunshine as the day wears on.

Expect mainly clear to partly cloudy skies tonight through Friday.
Patchy fog will form again overnight through Friday morning across
the Southern Tier river valleys and east of Lake Ontario.

Temperatures will continue to run solidly above average. Highs today
and Friday will be in the lower 80s for lower elevations and mid to
upper 70s for higher terrain. Lows tonight will drop back to the mid
to upper 50s in most areas, with some low 50s in the cooler Southern
Tier valleys and North Country.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A weak coastal low will remain well off the Southern New England
coast as riding remain across the lower Great Lakes. A weak backdoor
front will bring some additional cloud cover Friday night but no
precipitation.

A somewhat robust mid level shortwave will then track southeast from
the Upper Great Lakes during the day Saturday. This `new` feature in
the guidance will likely encourage some showers to develop...mainly
over the western counties south of Buffalo and Rochester. Pops have
been raised to chc-low likely for the western counties. The
diurnally enhanced convection from this feature will die off
Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Surface high pressure will continue to extend south across the area
Sunday, maintaining dry warm weather across the forecast area. The
pattern will then become more amplified early next week across the
Great Lakes region as a trough digs into the Midwest with moisture
being advected northward from the Gulf of Mexico. Ensemble means
continue to support showers to move into the region Monday and
linger through Wednesday.

Otherwise, temperatures will gradually cool late this weekend
through the start of next week. Despite the cooling trend,
temperatures will continue to remain above average.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Patchy fog and local IFR will continue through mid morning across
the river valleys of the Southern Tier and east of Lake Ontario.
Similar to the past several nights, KART will be the terminal most
likely impacted by some fog. Otherwise, VFR will prevail outside of
the patchy fog through mid morning with areas of mid/high clouds.

The fog will burn off by 13Z-14Z today, leaving VFR to prevail with
decreasing amounts of mid/high clouds as an area of moisture over
PA retreats away from the area.

Expect more of the same tonight, with a few areas of high clouds
and patchy fog with local IFR across the Southern Tier valleys and
east of Lake Ontario.

Outlook...

Friday through Sunday...VFR, except for patchy fog across the
Southern Tier and east of Lake Ontario each overnight and morning.

Monday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will remain in control through the end of the week
with light winds and minimal wave action. Winds will tend to be
northeast much of the time.

The northeast winds will strengthen some over the weekend,
especially on Lake Ontario where a moderate chop will develop at
times.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...EAJ/RSH
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...Hitchcock