905
FXUS61 KBUF 271031
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
631 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure across the Great Lakes will provide dry weather
through today. The tropical remnants of Helene will approach from
the south, bringing the possibility of some rain showers tonight
and this weekend, mainly south of Interstate 90.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure across the Great Lakes will maintain dry weather
today, although higher level cloud cover associated with tropical
moisture from Helene will continue to spread northward. The
extensive cloud cover should hold temperatures down a bit from most
guidance with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. The remnants of
Helene will shift westward towards the Ohio Valley tonight.
Some leading bands of rain may sneak into southern portions of
the area for a time, but a mid-level dry slot wrapping in from
the south-southeast should keep the rain light and rather
spotty.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A closed low will meander across the Ohio Valley while an upper
level ridge slowly pushes east of the region this weekend. A warm,
moist conveyor belt with remnants of tropical moisture from Helene
will move into the forecast area this weekend. The forecast
continues to trend wet and cloudy across western NY this weekend. A
few shortwave troughs on the north side of the closed low will swing
by the forecast area. This may trigger rain showers across western
NY, however showers should not cause a washout. Surface high
pressure and the upper level ridge will fend off the moisture and
keep the Eastern Lake Ontario region mostly dry, albeit cloudy.

Temperatures will remain above normal with highs in the low to mid
70s Saturday and Sunday and lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The closed low with remnants of Helene will finally get forward
speed as a trough deepens across the Northern Plains Monday through
Monday night. Initially, an upper level ridge will be across the
Great Lakes region maintaining mostly dry weather Monday. Then, the
low will become an open wave and lift northeast and cause moisture
to move into the forecast area into Tuesday. A southerly flow will
deepen Tuesday as the trough to the west moves into the Great Lakes
region. A strong cold front will move across the forecast area in
the Tuesday night to Wednesday time frame. Showers will likely
accompany the cold front with the potential for a few thunderstorms.
Cold air advection will occur immediately behind the front with
ensemble mean 850mb temperatures falling to +5C by Wednesday night.
Strong subsidence and drier air will move into the region for
Thursday.

Temperatures will be above normal Monday and Tuesday, then close to
normal Wednesday through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will remain across the Great Lakes today. Upper level
moisture associated with Helene will continue to spread northward.
Variable vsbys this morning with some very patchy fog. Any fog will
quickly dissipate today, with mainly VFR flight conditions. Some
clouds with bases around 4k feet will push into the Southern Tier
with patchy MVFR possible.

Outlook...

Saturday through Monday...Mainly VFR, with areas of MVFR in low
cigs and showers across the Southern Tier at times.

Monday night and Tuesday...VFR/MVFR. Showers likely.

&&

.MARINE...
Light winds and negligible waves this morning as high pressure
ridges in from the north. Northeast flow will pick up this afternoon
and into this weekend as the remnants of Helene advance towards
the Ohio Valley tightening the pressure gradient across the lower
Great Lakes. Small craft headlines may been needed for the early
portion of the weekend on Lake Erie and western Lake Ontario.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Apffel/TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...Apffel/TMA
MARINE...TMA