Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
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427 FXUS61 KBUF 231835 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 235 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will slide across the area through this evening with fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms. Behind the front, cooler and less humid air will spread across the area for the start of the new work week, though this break will be brief. A roller coaster in temperatures for the rest of the week as warm weather will then return Tuesday and Wednesday before dipping back down later in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Potent mid-level shortwave and associated deep surface low currently tracking across southern Ontario. Convection associated with a pre- frontal trough exiting the eastern Lake Ontario region this afternoon. Cold front extending from the Ohio Valley into Southern Ontario. Cloud cover along with previous convection has helped stabilize the airmass across western and north central New York with the latest mesoanalysis showing surface based CAPES less than 1000 J/kg. Visible satellite showing the potential for some breaks of sunshine ahead of the approaching cold front, but how much destabilization will occur is in question. Would expect some additional destabilization ahead of the front the rest of the afternoon into the early evening overlapped with favorable shear profiles, will keep at least some potential for robust convection, especially east of the Genesee Valley as the cold front moves though. The convection will continue into the early evening hours as the surface cold front exits east of the eastern Lake Ontario region. Additionally, just to the north of the New York State/Canadian border will lie a surface low. A passing shortwave trough aloft tonight will support scattered showers to continue across western and north central New York with the best chances lying closer to the surface low across the North Country. In the wake of the front tonight, cooler and less humid air will filter into the region. Low temperatures tonight will range in the upper 50s to lower 60s. The potent mid-level shortwave and associated surface low will pass through the Saint Lawrence Valley Monday morning. Lingering moisture and lift from the passing trough will keep the potential for some showers and perhaps and isolated diurnally driven thunderstorms in the forecast through Monday afternoon, mainly east of the Genesee Valley. Some gusty north-northwest winds will also be possible on Monday as boundary layer flow increases with the passage of the trough. Otherwise, Monday will see relief from the oppressive heat and humidity of the past week. Highs will be a solid 10F to 15F cooler areawide with lower to mid 70s across the region. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure will start to build into the region Monday evening, bringing an end to any lingering showers. The expectation is that dry weather will persist through Tuesday as high pressure moves across the region. A warm front approaches the region late Tuesday afternoon and evening. We might see a shower or an isolated thunderstorm by Tuesday night. A better chance for showers and storms arrives by Wednesday as a cold front nears the lower Great Lakes. After a brief cool down, summer warmth and humidity makes a returns Tuesday and last into Wednesday. Highs Tuesday will range from the upper 70s to lower to mid 80s. A few degrees warmer Wednesday with most locales found in the 80s again. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The passage of the cold front by Wednesday night will again bring in another much more refreshing airmass into western and north central New York for the latter part of the work week. This should result in dry weather Thursday and Friday with highs lower to mid 70s Thursday, then as the airmass starts to modify with surface high moving east of our area Friday will see high temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Dew points in the 50s will mean very tolerable humidity levels for late June. Mid summer warmth and humidity along with shower/storm chances will return as we head into the weekend as the next frontal system approaches from the west. Depending upon the timing of the frontal passage Saturday should be the more uncomfortable of the two weekend days with highs well into the 80s and higher humidity. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... variable CIGS across the region this afternoon, as scattered convection continues across the region. The stronger convection will likely be east of western and north central New York with low confidence of any TS at any terminal. The passage of a cold front though this evening will taper down the showers and storms from west to east. after the storms move through, there will be a brief period of VFR once again before MVFR cigs move back in as flow becomes northwesterly towards morning. Outlook... Monday...Mainly VFR. A chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms inland from the lakes. Tuesday...Mainly VFR conditions. Tuesday night and Wednesday...MVFR/VFR with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Thursday and Friday...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... Strong southwest winds will maintain Small Craft Advisories into this evening. A round of showers and thunderstorms will be possible into early this evening as a cold front moves through bringing the potential for locally strong winds and waves. In the wake of the front this afternoon and evening, a shift from southwesterly to northerly flow will support continued choppy conditions to the lakes, bringing a round of Small Craft Advisory conditions to Lake Ontario Monday. High pressure builds in across both lakes Monday and lasts through Tuesday, diminishing winds and waves. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday morning for NYZ010-019- 085. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LOZ030. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for LOZ042. Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Monday for LOZ043>045. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EAJ/TMA NEAR TERM...AR/EAJ/TMA SHORT TERM...AR/TMA LONG TERM...AR/JM/TMA AVIATION...EAJ/TMA MARINE...EAJ/TMA