755
FXUS61 KBUF 280416
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1216 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather will persist on Tuesday...then a drying trend and
cooler conditions will take hold for the rest of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY EVENING/...
All of the organized shower and thunderstorm activity has
either ended or has moved out of our forecast area...as a cold
front continues to push east across the Adirondacks. Otherwise...
gusty southwest winds will persist in many areas.

Tuesday...A robust shortwave with the cyclonic flow will rotate
across the region. This will be accompanied by the next surge of
deeper moisture. Again showers and some thunderstorms will be
possible...especially during the midday and afternoon hours. Highs
on Tuesday will `likely` peak in the 60s to near 70F. It will also
be quiet breezy with westerly winds gusting up to 35 mph at
times.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A potent trough and then a cold front will track across the
area Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. As the trough
tracks across the area, showers will continue through the first
half of the night, before becoming less organized. Forcing from
the trough will provide the main focus for showers during the
evening and early overnight, while the cold front will move
through and continue the potential for showers. Have included
sChc of thunder this update as there could be just enough
lingering instability early in the night to support a few
isolated thunderstorms, though this threat should quickly wane
through the night with the absence of diurnal heating. Overall
synoptic moisture ahead of the trough will be generally low with
PWATs of around an inch, and lowering some to around three
quarters of an inch after it crosses the area. With these lower
moisture values and weaker forcing from the cold front, showers
that do linger into the morning on Wednesday will be less
organized. Most areas can expect less than a tenth of an inch of
rainfall, with the greatest amounts east of Lake Ontario where
forcing and moisture will be slightly better. Temperatures on
the night will be in the upper 40s for the higher terrain to the
low 50s for the lower elevations.

Wednesday, showers will linger across the area, with the best
chance for showers southeast of Lake Ontario toward the NY/PA
border. Showers will taper off and track out of the area from
northwest to southeast. By the afternoon, showers should be
limited to a general area from the NY/PA border, to the Finger
Lakes & to the western ADKs. Northwest flow over the region will
help keep temperatures below normal, with highs in the mid 50s
to upper 60s from the higher terrain to lower elevations
respectively.

Wednesday night, earlier showers should be out of the area,
minus a  few sprinkles for the Southern Tier and for areas well
southeast of Lake Ontario. Clearing skies from northwest to
southeast, along with a mostly northerly flow will bring one of
the cooler nights the area has seen in a while with overnight
lows dropping to the low to upper 40s.

The region will remain situated under broad, positively tilted
upper level troughing centered over the Canadian Maritimes
Thursday. To the west, a strong, progressive ridge of high
pressure will be building eastward over the Great Lakes region.
The surface high from this feature will "undercut" the initial
upper level troughing to a degree, so while it should be another
day of cooler than normal weather, it will be drier across the
region compared to Wednesday. There remains a very low chance
(15-20%) chance of showers across portions of the North Country
Thursday afternoon, which will be further removed from the
stabilizing effects of the high to the west.

Cool, dry and tranquil weather then expected Thursday night as
the upper level trough axis quickly pivots away from the eastern
Great Lakes and into New England. Temps will again fall back
into the 40s overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A large area of high pressure and stout ridge will build east
into  the region during the long term period. The surface high
and large ridge will be centered over the region from Friday
afternoon through Saturday evening, ensuring fair dry weather.

There are some timing issues with the next incoming trough and
how  quickly the large ridge weakens and/or moves east. Due to
this, some guidance is bringing in the potential for showers
starting on Sunday morning, but with the lack of certainty, left
at most sChc POPs. Rain chances increase some on Monday as
another weak shortwave moves across the Great Lakes region on
the lee side of the building ridge.

Temperatures for the period will start out near normal values in
the  upper 60s and low 70s Friday, though warm to around 5-10
degrees above normal by Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Most of the TAF sites will experience cigs of 2500-3500 feet
overnight. Solid MVFR cigs will be found across the Southern
Tier through 09z...but could further lower to IFR levels for
the wee hours of the morning through daybreak.

A wealth of low level moisture circulating around a deep storm
over  Quebec will support mainly MVFR cigs for the region on
Tuesday. These cigs will be accompanied by an increasing chance
for showers...and even an isolated thunderstorm or two for the
afternoon.

Outlook...

Tuesday night and Wednesday...VFR to MVFR cigs with a chance of
showers.
Thursday through Saturday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate to fresh southwesterlies will continue to support small
craft advisories through Tuesday for the nearshore waters...while
winds should subside enough for the SCA to expire Tuesday
morning in  BUF Harbor.

A weakening pressure gradient will then produce moderate north to
northwest breezes Tuesday night and Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Mesonet obs at Woodgate confirm radar estimates with around 4
inches of rain measured today from a couple rounds of storms.
This is just south of our forecast area, but it is in the Black
River basin and will flow to the Boonville gauge. Basin averages
are less than that, but coordinated with the NERFC and expect a
basin average of around 3 inches to push the Boonville gauge to
above action stage late tonight into Tuesday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ007.
     Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NYZ010-019-
     085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for
         LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
         LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR/Apffel/RSH
SHORT TERM...PP/SW
LONG TERM...PP/SW
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH
HYDROLOGY...Apffel