585
FXUS65 KBYZ 121935
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
135 PM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024

.DISCUSSION...

Through Thursday night...

Satellite imagery shows a dry zonal flow and mostly clear skies in
our region. There is a weak shortwave to our north, and low-level
water vapor imagery shows very modest moistening from central ID
into MT. This won`t amount to much but should result in a bit more
high-based cumulus and mid cloud from now thru sunset. Many
models produce a little QPF tonight in northwest SD in a region of
very elevated and shallow instability (based at perhaps 650mb).
This should be watched this evening but all indications are that
any actual shower development will be east of Carter County.

Otherwise, heights will build slowly from the west over the next
24 hours with flat ridging taking shape. Thus, continued dry wx is
expected through Thursday evening. Behind the aforementioned wave
to our north, a wind shift to NW then N-E will occur later tonight
into tomorrow morning. Modest backdoor cooling will result in
highs tomorrow a few degrees cooler than today (mid 70s to lower
80s).

Ridge axis shifts east and heights begin to fall late Thursday
night as a Pacific shortwave moves inland (associated w/ a
deepening parent low off the BC coast). Lower elevations should
remain dry, but a few light showers may spread to the Beartooth-
Absarokas before daybreak Friday. This will be the first sign of
the pattern shift upcoming.

JKL

Friday through Wednesday...

For Friday, ridging will be in place, allowing for temperatures in
the 80s to low 90s. Perturbations in the low to mid level heights
will create some lift for showers thunderstorms. Southeast flow
will advect in moisture and warm air giving the region PWATs of
0.9-1.1 inches. With the increased instability, resulting MUCAPE
values are around 1000-2000 J/kg (highest values in the far east).
0-6 km shear values of 30-40 kts and the sufficient instability
will produce an environment favorable for thunderstorms with a few
being severe. Storms will also have the potential to produce
local heavy rainfall. The weekend remains unsettled with precip
chances in the forecast for Saturday ahead of shortwave troughing
and an associated strong cold front forecasted for Saturday night.
Ensembles are differing on the track and strength of the low, so
precip amounts and placement is uncertain at this time. Unsettled
and cooler weather remains in place for the remainder of the
forecast period with PoPs of 10-30% for most of the region. Monday
morning, snow levels are forecasted to drop to around 7500 ft and
the highest peaks have around a 35% chance to get at least 6
inches of snow.

High temperatures will be in the 80s/low 90s Friday, 70s/80s
Saturday, 60s/70s Sunday, 50s/60s Monday-Tuesday and 70s
Wednesday. TS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR will prevail across the region thru Thursday, under a dry
westerly flow aloft. Mixed W-NW winds will be breezy til 01z this
evening, especially along the western foothills and north/east of
a KBIL-K00F line. Expect 20-30kt gusts in these areas, then
lighter winds overnight and Thursday. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 052/080 056/088 058/085 051/071 048/062 045/067 047/075
    00/U    02/T    31/B    10/B    34/T    42/W    22/T
LVM 043/080 050/086 051/079 044/066 040/055 038/063 040/072
    00/U    04/T    33/T    12/W    46/T    43/T    22/T
HDN 050/082 055/090 056/088 050/073 047/065 043/067 045/076
    00/U    02/T    41/U    20/B    44/T    43/W    22/W
MLS 050/079 055/092 061/085 053/073 049/062 046/066 047/074
    00/U    02/W    41/U    40/B    44/T    53/W    21/B
4BQ 053/081 056/092 061/089 054/074 050/065 047/067 045/074
    00/U    02/T    31/U    20/B    43/W    42/W    21/B
BHK 047/078 051/087 057/086 052/074 047/065 045/066 044/073
    00/U    02/T    31/U    50/B    43/W    42/W    22/W
SHR 049/081 052/089 055/088 049/074 044/065 040/064 041/074
    10/U    02/T    21/U    10/B    43/T    42/W    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
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