785
FXUS65 KBYZ 110916
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
316 AM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday night...

Satellite imagery showed weak cyclonic flow over our region with
a few showers across east central Montana.

Ridging will work into the region today leading to warm temps and
lighter winds. That said, we still expect to see some westerly
breeze in the foothills from 15 to 30 mph. Look for highs well
into the 80s..perhaps an isolated 90 degree reading possible.

By evening, energy tracking across southern Canada pulls a weak
cold front through our area with modest height falls generating
some lift. CAM`s suggest destabilization starting in our SW Mtns
spreading east onto the plains. We will carry isolated to widely
scattered showers overnight, with some possible thunder in the
evening hours. At this time it appears pretty hit and miss weak
activity with limited MUCAPE (< 500 J/kg) and bulk shear
decreasing below 30 kts by 9 pm.

Flow remains zonal for Wednesday with downslope drying out the
area. Our foothills may see brisk west/northwest wind again 15-30
mph. RH readings may drop into the mid teens over portions of
east central Montana. Highs will be just a bit cooler than
Tuesday in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Wednesday night should be
mostly clear. Lows in the 40s west to lower 50s in the southeast
sections.

Th Flood Advisory for the Beartooths and adjacent foothills
remains in effect through today. Minor flooding of small creeks
may continue in some areas and impact roads near local
campgrounds. BT

Thursday through Tuesday...

SREF and Clusters showed a trough moving E of the area on Thursday
with a ridge building in. The weather will be dry with near normal
temperatures. Ridge moves E out of the area on Friday and SW flow
behind the ridge will bring showers and thunderstorms to areas W
of KBIL (20-40% chance with 50% in the SW mountains). There will
be a slight chance of showers and storms over Fallon and Carter
Counties. CWASP values were in the 50s in the far E with surface
CAPE from 1000-2000 J/kg E of KBIL and over KSHR. Due to low-level
SE flow, PWAT`s will climb to 0.75 to 1 inch. Above parameters
supported possible strong storms in the E with heavy rainfall. It
will be very warm on Friday with highs in the 80s to around 90.
Probabilities for at least 90 degrees were 40% in KBHK and KLVM,
36% in KBIL, 71% in KSHR and 63% in KMLS. PoPs increase across the
entire area Fri. evening (20-30%).

SW flow will be over the region on Saturday. CWASP`s were in the
50s over areas W and E of KBIL. There was a slight (20%) chance of
precipitation over the far W Sat. afternoon, and 20-30% PoPs will
overspread the area Sat. evening. Highs will be in the upper 70s
to mid 80s. For Sunday through Tuesday, uncertainty increased in
the forecast as models had various solutions regarding the next
trough or troughs that will move into the region. Forecast has a
cooling trend with scattered PoPs through the period. Will need to
watch this period for better model agreement in future runs.
Arthur

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR will prevail over the area today. There will be a slight
chance of showers over areas W of KMLS and N of KSHR in the
evening. MVFR conditions are possible in showers. Expect localized
mountain obscuration. Arthur
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 086 058/084 051/079 055/086 058/084 052/074 049/067
    0/U 20/U    00/U    01/B    21/U    11/B    33/W
LVM 084 050/082 044/079 049/085 050/079 043/070 042/064
    0/U 10/N    00/U    03/T    22/T    22/W    44/T
HDN 087 057/085 050/081 054/088 057/085 051/075 049/070
    1/U 20/U    10/U    01/B    30/U    21/U    33/W
MLS 085 060/083 051/079 055/088 060/083 053/075 050/070
    0/U 30/U    10/U    01/B    31/U    31/U    43/W
4BQ 086 060/084 054/081 056/090 061/085 055/077 052/074
    0/U 20/U    10/U    11/B    31/U    21/B    42/W
BHK 083 056/081 046/078 050/084 056/083 052/075 047/072
    0/U 10/U    10/U    12/T    31/B    32/W    43/W
SHR 084 055/084 050/080 053/088 055/084 049/075 047/071
    0/U 10/U    10/U    01/B    21/U    11/U    32/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
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