023
FXUS65 KBYZ 260811
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
211 AM MDT Sun May 26 2024

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Monday night...

A broad trough was working its way through Montana early this
morning. This was producing a few weak showers over the area while
the ascent still has decent precipitable water values (0.60-0.80
inches) to work with. The atmoshpere will dry out as the day wears
on, with increasing downslope flow. Best chance of precipitation
will be this morning. Both hires and global models bring a strong
area of ascent across south central Montana and northern Wyoming
this morning. This leads to higher precipitation chances (40-60%)
over the mountains and foothills, with a focus over southern Big
Horn county and Sheridan county. Since the atmosphere will be
drying out as this occurs, not expecting terribly heavy rain
totals. That being said, NBM probabilities of picking up 0.20
inches of rainfall was 50% south of Billings from McLeod to Red
Lodge to Lodge Grass to Sheridan. The chance of precipitation will
linger over the Bighorns and its foothills this evening,
otherwise this evening should be dry.

Winds increase today as the strongest wave within the trough
moving through, slides across northeast Montana. This process
increases 700mb winds to 30-40kts and 850mb winds to 20-30kts
(strongest over western zones). This will drive west to northwest
wind gusts of 20-35mph. The strongest winds will be occur from
Livingston to Big Timber to Harlowton, where gusts of 35-45 are
expected. NBM probabilities of gusts over 35mph in this area is
80%. Winds will decrease this evening. Monday is shaping up to be
mostly sunny and less windy.

High temperatures today will be in the mid to upper 60s, but will
feel a little cooler than that with the wind. Readings will be
warm (and feel much warmer with more sunshine and less wind) on
Memorial Day, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. TWH

Tuesday through Saturday...

For Tuesday and Wednesday, ridging will provide warm and dry
conditions for the region with high temperatures in the 70s and
80s. With recent heavy snowfall in the mountains, there is concern
for rises in waterways. Any interests/property on the waterways
should be considered during this period. Ridging will begin to
break down Wednesday as lowering heights from a low off the coast
of BC Canada builds in. Chances of precipitation begin to increase
Wednesday as an anticipated cold front moves through. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are possible with this front with decent
instability (MUCAPE ~1000-1500 J/kg) and 0-6 km shear (30-40
kts). PWATs will be above average ranging from .7-.9 inches.
Depending on where the strongest forcing sets up, heavy rain is a
possibility under any thunderstorms. For now, the mountains and
surrounding foothills have the best chance of getting at least
half an inch of rain with chances decreasing to the far east to
about 10-20% Wed-Fri. Clusters differ on the behavior of the
system towards the end of the week, and precip chances remain at
20-40% Thurs-Fri. Ensembles then hint at ridging for the weekend.
High temperatures will be in the 60s/70s Thursday through
Saturday. TS

&&

.AVIATION...

Scattered showers will dissipate through the morning with isolated
showers developing again this afternoon/evening. Wind gusts will
range from 20-30 kts, with gusts up to 40 kts at KLVM. TS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 067 045/073 047/080 054/078 048/064 044/068 045/074
    3/W 10/U    00/U    16/T    73/T    22/T    12/T
LVM 063 039/071 043/079 051/075 041/060 038/066 041/072
    3/W 00/U    01/U    28/T    64/T    22/T    12/T
HDN 067 041/073 043/082 051/080 048/066 043/070 043/076
    3/W 10/U    00/U    05/T    73/W    22/T    22/T
MLS 067 045/071 044/079 055/083 050/068 046/070 045/075
    2/W 10/U    00/U    02/T    62/W    22/T    11/U
4BQ 066 046/069 045/079 055/084 050/068 045/069 045/075
    3/W 10/U    00/U    02/T    52/W    32/T    21/U
BHK 066 042/068 042/075 050/081 050/069 044/069 043/071
    3/T 10/U    00/U    02/T    51/B    32/W    11/U
SHR 065 041/069 043/079 051/082 046/065 040/069 042/073
    5/T 20/U    00/U    04/T    63/T    32/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings