Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
108 FXUS65 KBYZ 140758 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 158 AM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024 .DISCUSSION... Today through Saturday Night... Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to move through the region this afternoon and evening, with a few possibly becoming strong to severe. The main threat is strong and erratic winds, but isolated hail is also possible, especially in far south-eastern Montana. Remember: When Lightning Roars, Go Indoors! Ahead of this activity, a few light showers/sprinkles are possible this morning, especially close to the mountains and foothills (10-20% chance). While this activity will spread clouds across portions the area, there should be enough breaks in the cloud cover to allow the surface to warm and destabilize through the day. With this, high temperatures are expected to be warm with readings in the 80s to lower 90 degrees F. By this afternoon, showers and thunderstorms look to initiate in both south-eastern Montana (around Powder River and Carter counties) and south- central Montana (west of Billings). These showers and thunderstorms will spread east through the evening hours. As mentioned above, the main threat will be strong and erratic winds across the entire area. The hail threat is more focused to far south-eastern Montana where the better instability will be in place. All this is in line with the day 1 outlook from SPC, which has a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across the majority of south central and eastern Montana. With all that said, make sure to stay weather aware today. After today`s activity, additional showers, with a rumble of thunder or two, look to spread across western zones (west of Billings) late tonight into Saturday morning (15-30% chance). Saturday is expected to be another warm day with high temperatures in the 80s to lower 90s once again. With this, moderate diurnal instability looks to develop. This, combined with a cold front passage Saturday evening, will allow showers and thunderstorms to develop once again, mainly east and north of Billings. Wind and hail will be the main threats with this activity, and this is reflected in the day 2 outlook from SPC which has a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms for areas east of Billings and a slight risk of severe thunderstorms for areas in northeast Montana and northwest North Dakota. The frontal passage Saturday evening will also bring gusty northwest winds to the surface, with 20-40 mph wind gusts common. Arends Sunday through Thursday... Upper low tracks across southern Canada and tightens the upper level heights over our area, increasing jet level winds. Downslope winds mix down in this pattern and bring dry conditions, but with lowered heights in general temperatures should be 10 degrees or so lower than Saturdays forecast highs. Unsettled conditions arrive Monday and continue into Thursday as an upper level trof drops into the area and sticks around for a while. This pattern taps into several surges of plains moisture and wraps them into the area for the potential of widespread precipitation. NBM precipitation spreads remain very broad at this time based on the various upper low tracks. The 10th-90th spreads are almost 2 inches for central and western zones for 72hr precipitation totals, and the probs for an inch or more of precipitation are generally in the 30 to 50 percent range. Snow levels drop from around 9kft Monday to under 7kft by Tuesday morning. Snow totals for the highest elevations of the western mountains are running 6 to 10 inches, with around an inch for the Bighorn mountains Monday-Wednesday. However these totals will be determined by precipitation amounts which as noted above still have some serious spread (uncertainty). So, expect these values to change as the forecast progresses and we dial in the storm track and resulting precipitation placement. Temperatures will drop from the 70s on Sunday into the 50s and 60s for Monday and Tuesday, climbing back toward 70 degrees on Wednesday. Lows will be in the 30s to lower 40s at night, with 20s in the mountains. If you have outdoor plans for the early to middle part of next week be prepared for inclimate weather, and in the higher foothills/mountains expect a lean toward wintry weather. Chambers && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail through noon Friday. After that a couple of areas of scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop. One will move out of the western mountains between 18-21z and spread east through the late afternoon hours. The second will develop over SE Montana around 20z and slowly shift east into the Dakotas by 23-00z. Wind gusts of 40 to 50kts will be the main threat with storms today, with SE Montana storms also having a hail threat. Local MVFR conditions can be expected near precipitation areas, especially east of Rosebud County. Chambers && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 089 057/086 050/072 049/061 045/061 042/070 047/077 3/T 31/U 10/U 37/T 86/W 32/T 12/W LVM 087 052/078 039/068 041/058 038/056 035/066 040/074 5/T 33/T 20/B 48/T 87/T 33/T 22/T HDN 090 056/089 049/074 049/066 045/062 040/071 045/079 3/T 31/U 20/B 46/T 86/W 32/W 22/W MLS 092 062/089 051/072 049/063 048/061 042/069 048/077 1/B 41/U 40/U 46/T 86/W 32/W 22/W 4BQ 092 060/092 052/073 051/066 048/064 042/071 048/078 2/T 41/U 20/U 54/W 74/W 32/W 22/T BHK 089 057/089 050/072 046/063 046/062 041/068 046/077 2/T 41/U 50/U 54/W 85/W 32/W 22/T SHR 090 054/090 045/074 046/069 043/064 037/068 043/077 3/T 21/B 10/U 45/T 74/T 33/T 22/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings