657
FXUS65 KBYZ 182009
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
209 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Thursday night...

Low pressure, currently over northeast Montana, will continue to
drift northeast tonight through Thursday. Expect gusty winds and
precipitation associated with the low to gradually push
east/northeast and diminish with time tonight into Thursday
morning. Precipitation totals so far have been very beneficial for
the area with 24 hour totals ranging from just over an inch in the
Billings area with 2 to around 3 inches reported over portions
of central into south central Montana. Lighter amounts have been
observed over southeast Montana, but still beneficial with amounts
of a few tenths to over 1/2 inch. Winds have remained just shy of
High Wind Warning over the area, but still impactful with gusts
into the mid 50s at times. Snow, heavy at times, occurred over
the Absaroka/Beartooth Mountains, mainly above 9,000 ft. The
Fisher Creek Snotel, located at 9,1000 ft has reported a snow
depth of 8 inches this afternoon, but with warming temperatures
this afternoon the snow accumulation has slowed thanks to
compaction. Plan on an additional 1 to 2 inches of snow in the
high country, mainly above 9,500 ft through the rest of the
afternoon before ending.

JW

Friday through Wednesday...

Pacific flow with near normal heights will persist Friday through
Monday. The general consensus among ensembles leans toward this
being a mostly dry period of weather, but there is some
uncertainty here. There are a couple of shortwaves embedded within
the flow. The first Friday and Friday night may bring some
showers (20-30% chance) along with a brief push of modest cold
advection. The second wave Sunday night and Monday may do the
same. That said, there are a few ensemble members (the least
probable of cluster analyses) that show one or both of these waves
being sharper and a bit wetter. Temperatures should be more or
less seasonable (highs in the 60s and 70s) for the third week of
September.

There is some confidence in a building ridge, and thus warmer and
drier conditions, toward the middle of next week. We could see
temps back near 80F.

JKL/RMS

&&

.AVIATION...


Low pressure will move from northeast Montana to south central
Canada during the TAF period. This storm system is producing
impacts to aviation in much of the area north of the MT/WY border
this afternoon, with strong winds gusting to 45-50 kt and clouds
and rain and clouds producing MVFR conditions and clouds and snow
causing mountain obscuration.

For tonight, winds will decrease in south central MT but remain
gusty in southeast MT with gusts to 35-40 kt there. LLWS is
expected around and after 07z near KSHR and around and after 11z
near KMLS. Sky and visibility conditions should improve in south
central MT to VFR. In southeast MT, ceilings will be MVFR to IFR.

Thursday will be breezy with west/northwest winds gusting to 25-40
kt, strongest in southeast MT. In southeast MT, conditions will be
MVFR through about 19z, then VFR. There will be areas of mountain
obscuration in the morning. Elsewhere, VFR will prevail on
Thursday. RMS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 053/073 049/075 046/065 044/070 047/070 048/073 050/078
    60/U    01/U    31/B    11/U    12/W    21/U    01/U
LVM 043/072 043/073 039/065 038/070 041/068 041/072 044/078
    30/U    01/B    21/B    11/U    13/W    21/U    01/U
HDN 051/074 046/077 044/067 042/071 043/070 045/073 045/079
    80/B    01/U    31/B    11/U    12/W    21/U    00/U
MLS 055/072 049/076 046/064 044/068 045/069 046/070 047/076
    71/N    00/U    21/B    11/B    11/B    11/U    00/U
4BQ 054/073 047/078 045/065 043/067 045/069 045/069 046/077
    61/U    00/U    21/B    11/B    11/B    11/B    00/U
BHK 051/070 045/078 043/065 041/067 042/068 042/069 044/075
    52/W    00/U    21/B    11/B    11/B    11/B    00/U
SHR 048/076 043/080 040/066 038/070 038/070 041/072 042/081
    50/U    01/U    31/B    11/U    12/W    21/U    01/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...High Wind Warning in effect until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR
      ZONES
      29>31-34-36-42-57-58-63-68-138-141-170-172-173-228-235.
     Wind Advisory in effect until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR ZONE
      66.
     Winter Storm Warning in effect until 6 PM MDT this evening
      FOR ZONE 67.
WY...None.

&&

$$
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