Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
514 FXUS65 KBYZ 190038 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Billings MT 638 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024 .UPDATE... Winter Storm Warning for the Beartooth Absaroka mountains was allowed to expire at 6PM. Current observations showed temperatures in the high 30s and 40s at elevations ranging from 7-10,000ft. Latest model guidance and observations suggest minor snow accumulations will possible for elevations above 11,000ft. However, this was not enough to extend the warning. Wind highlights will be monitored this evening for possible early cancellation. Torgerson && .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Thursday night... Low pressure, currently over northeast Montana, will continue to drift northeast tonight through Thursday. Expect gusty winds and precipitation associated with the low to gradually push east/northeast and diminish with time tonight into Thursday morning. Precipitation totals so far have been very beneficial for th are with 24 hour totals ranging from just over an inch in the Billings area to with 2 to around 3 inches reported over portions of central into south central Montana. Lighter amounts have been observed over southeast Montana, but still beneficial with amounts of a few tenths to over 1/2 inch. Winds have remained just shy of High Wind Warning over the area, but still impactful with gusts into the mid 50s at times. Snow, heavy at times, occurred over the Absaroka/Beartooth Mountains, mainly above 9,000 ft. The Fisher Creek Snotel, located at 9,1000 ft has reported a snow depth of 8 inches this afternoon, but with warming temperatures this afternoon the snow accumulation has slowed thanks to compaction. Plan on an additional 1 to 2 inches of snow in the high country, mainly above 9,500 ft through the rest of the afternoon before ending. Friday through Wednesday... Pacific flow with near normal heights will persist Friday through Monday. The general consensus among ensembles leans toward this being a mostly dry period of weather, but there is some uncertainty here. There are a couple of shortwaves embedded within the flow. The first Friday and Friday night may bring some showers (20-30% chance) along with a brief push of modest cold advection. The second wave Sunday night and Monday may do the same. That said, there are a few ensemble members (the least probable of cluster analyses) that show one or both of these waves being sharper and a bit wetter. Temperatures should be more or less seasonable (highs in the 60s and 70s) for the third week of September. There is some confidence in a building ridge, and thus warmer and drier conditions, toward the middle of next week. We could see temps back near 80F. JKL/RMS && .AVIATION... For tonight, winds will decrease in south central MT but remain gusty in southeast MT with gusts to 35-40 kt there. LLWS is expected around and after 07z near KSHR and areas east. Sky and visibility conditions should improve in south central MT to VFR. In southeast MT, ceilings will be MVFR to IFR with showers gradually decreasing. Thursday will be breezy with west/northwest winds gusting to 25-40 kt, strongest in southeast MT. In southeast MT, conditions will be MVFR through about 19z, then VFR. There will be areas of mountain obscuration in the morning. Elsewhere, VFR will prevail on Thursday. RMS/STP && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 053/073 049/076 047/065 044/071 050/069 047/073 050/079 60/U 01/U 21/B 00/U 12/W 21/U 00/U LVM 043/072 043/074 038/065 038/072 044/068 041/073 045/079 30/U 01/U 11/B 00/U 23/W 20/U 01/U HDN 051/074 046/077 045/066 041/072 045/070 044/073 045/080 80/B 00/U 31/B 10/U 12/W 21/U 00/U MLS 055/072 049/075 047/063 043/069 046/068 046/070 048/077 71/N 00/U 21/B 11/U 12/W 11/B 00/U 4BQ 054/073 047/079 047/065 043/069 045/068 046/070 048/080 61/U 00/U 11/B 11/U 12/W 21/B 10/U BHK 051/070 045/079 043/065 039/068 042/069 043/072 045/078 52/W 00/U 11/B 11/U 11/B 11/B 00/U SHR 048/076 043/080 042/066 038/073 042/070 040/073 043/082 50/U 00/U 21/B 11/U 13/W 21/B 10/U && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...High Wind Warning in effect until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR ZONES 29>31-34-36-42-57-58-63-68-138-141-170-172-173-228-235. Wind Advisory in effect until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR ZONE 66. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings